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Miami Heat

Also known as: Miami Heat
Program History

2009 Team Stats (74 games)

97.9
PPG
97.4
Opp
+0.6
Margin
45.9%
FG%
35.6%
3P%
74.7%
FT%
39.7
RPG
20.4
APG
12.0
TO
92.5
Est. poss./game
96.6
Adj PPG
96.0
Adj Opp PPG
#13
Scoring Rank

Model Outputs

2008-2009
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More โ†’ 1003 (#15) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More โ†’ 1022 (#14) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +102 elo More โ†’ 991 (#15) HCA +102 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +3.3 More โ†’ +0.6 (#13) HCA +3.3
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.7 More โ†’ +0.8 (#12) HCA +3.7
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More โ†’ 0.509 (#13) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff +0.5 More โ†’ 0.515 (#12) NetEff +0.5
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +0.4 More โ†’ 0.512 (#13) AdjNet +0.4
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +0.4 More โ†’ 0.512 (#13) AdjNet +0.4
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 96.6 | AdjD 96.0 More โ†’ 0.514 (#13) AdjO 96.6 | AdjD 96.0
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 96.7 | AdjD 96.0 More โ†’ 0.515 (#12) AdjO 96.7 | AdjD 96.0
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More โ†’ 0.508 (#13) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More โ†’ 0.508 (#13) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 178 | GP 89 More โ†’ 1009 (#13) RD 178 | GP 89

2009 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2008-10-29 @ New York Knicks L 115 - 120
2008-10-31 vs Sacramento Kings W 103 - 77
2008-11-01 @ Charlotte Hornets L 87 - 100
2008-11-05 vs Philadelphia 76ers W 106 - 83
2008-11-07 @ San Antonio Spurs - Incomplete score
2008-11-08 @ New Orleans Pelicans L 89 - 100
2008-11-10 vs Brooklyn Nets - Incomplete score
2008-11-12 vs Portland Trail Blazers L 96 - 104
2008-11-14 vs Washington Wizards W 97 - 77
2008-11-16 @ Toronto Raptors L 96 - 107
2008-11-18 @ Washington Wizards W 94 - 87
2008-11-19 vs Toronto Raptors L 95 - 101
2008-11-22 vs Indiana Pacers W 109 - 100
2008-11-26 @ Portland Trail Blazers - Incomplete score
2008-11-28 @ Phoenix Suns W 107 - 92
2008-12-01 @ Golden State Warriors W 130 - 129
2008-12-03 @ Utah Jazz W 93 - 89
2008-12-06 vs Oklahoma City Thunder W 105 - 99
2008-12-08 vs Charlotte Hornets W 100 - 96
2008-12-12 vs Atlanta Hawks L 73 - 87
2008-12-14 @ Memphis Grizzlies L 86 - 102
2008-12-15 vs Milwaukee Bucks L 83 - 98
2008-12-19 vs Los Angeles Lakers W 89 - 87
2008-12-20 @ Brooklyn Nets W 106 - 103
2008-12-23 vs Golden State Warriors W 96 - 88
2008-12-26 vs Chicago Bulls W 90 - 77
2008-12-28 @ Cleveland Cavaliers L 86 - 93
2008-12-30 vs Cleveland Cavaliers W 104 - 95
2009-01-02 @ Orlando Magic L 76 - 86
2009-01-03 vs Brooklyn Nets W 101 - 96
2009-01-07 @ Denver Nuggets L 97 - 108
2009-01-09 @ Sacramento Kings W 119 - 115
2009-01-11 @ Los Angeles Lakers L 105 - 108
2009-01-13 @ Minnesota Timberwolves W 99 - 96
2009-01-14 @ Milwaukee Bucks W 102 - 99
2009-01-17 @ Houston Rockets L 86 - 93
2009-01-18 @ Oklahoma City Thunder W 104 - 94
2009-01-21 vs Boston Celtics L 83 - 98
2009-01-24 vs Orlando Magic W 103 - 97
2009-01-26 vs Atlanta Hawks W 95 - 79
2009-01-28 vs Washington Wizards W 93 - 71
2009-01-30 @ Indiana Pacers L 103 - 114
2009-01-31 vs Dallas Mavericks L 96 - 111
2009-02-02 vs LA Clippers W 119 - 95
2009-02-04 @ Detroit Pistons L 90 - 93
2009-02-07 @ Philadelphia 76ers L 84 - 94
2009-02-08 vs Charlotte Hornets W 96 - 92
2009-02-10 vs Denver Nuggets L 82 - 99
2009-02-12 @ Chicago Bulls W 95 - 93
2009-02-18 vs Minnesota Timberwolves L 104 - 111
2009-02-21 vs Philadelphia 76ers W 97 - 91
2009-02-22 @ Orlando Magic L 99 - 122
2009-02-24 vs Detroit Pistons W 103 - 91
2009-02-27 @ Atlanta Hawks L 83 - 91
2009-02-28 vs New York Knicks W 120 - 115
2009-03-02 vs Cleveland Cavaliers L 100 - 107
2009-03-04 vs Phoenix Suns W 135 - 129
2009-03-06 @ Toronto Raptors W 108 - 102
2009-03-07 @ Cleveland Cavaliers L 89 - 99
2009-03-09 vs Chicago Bulls - Incomplete score
2009-03-11 vs Boston Celtics W 107 - 99
2009-03-14 vs Utah Jazz - Incomplete score
2009-03-15 @ Philadelphia 76ers L 77 - 85
2009-03-18 @ Boston Celtics L 108 - 112
2009-03-20 @ Brooklyn Nets L 88 - 96
2009-03-22 @ Detroit Pistons W 101 - 96
2009-03-23 vs Memphis Grizzlies W 94 - 82
2009-03-25 @ Indiana Pacers L 88 - 90
2009-03-26 @ Chicago Bulls L 87 - 106
2009-03-28 vs Milwaukee Bucks W 102 - 85
2009-03-30 vs Orlando Magic L 95 - 101
2009-04-01 @ Dallas Mavericks L 96 - 98
2009-04-03 @ Charlotte Hornets W 97 - 92
2009-04-04 @ Washington Wizards W 118 - 104
2009-04-07 vs New Orleans Pelicans L 87 - 93
2009-04-10 @ Boston Celtics L 98 - 105
2009-04-12 vs New York Knicks W 122 - 105
2009-04-14 @ Atlanta Hawks L 79 - 81
2009-04-15 vs Detroit Pistons W 102 - 96
2009-04-19 @ Atlanta Hawks L 64 - 90
2009-04-22 @ Atlanta Hawks W 108 - 93
2009-04-25 vs Atlanta Hawks W 107 - 78
2009-04-27 vs Atlanta Hawks L 71 - 81
2009-04-29 @ Atlanta Hawks L 91 - 106
2009-05-01 vs Atlanta Hawks W 98 - 72
2009-05-03 @ Atlanta Hawks L 78 - 91

2009 Roster

Counting stats use played regular-season games. PM and RAPM use their separate model samples; PM GP shows that sample's game count.

Minutes by Position

Each player's share of the team's minutes per game (season minutes over the roster's), placed by position, so every column is one game's minutes. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM GP PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Dwyane Wade G 71 38.2 30.1 4.9 7.3 2.0 1.4 3.3 21.9 20.6 51 12 4.2 3.7 49.2 30.3 76.5 0.18 57.4 51.4
Michael Beasley G 73 24.2 13.6 5.4 1.0 0.5 0.4 1.5 11.5 7.8 38 12 3.2 2.8 47.6 42.6 76.1 0.09 53.0 49.3
Jermaine O'Neal Jermaine O'Neal G 25 29.3 12.4 5.3 2.1 0.4 1.8 1.8 11.1 9.1 -16 12 -1.3 -1.2 47.3 0 73.1 -0.05 50.7 47.3
Shawn Marion G 38 36.0 12.2 8.8 1.8 1.3 1.2 1.3 10.7 13.4 43 10 4.3 3.9 48.9 22.9 77.9 0.15 52.9 49.9
Udonis Haslem Udonis Haslem G 67 33.7 10.6 8.3 1.1 0.6 0.3 1.1 8.6 11.2 48 12 4.0 3.4 53.0 0 71.8 0.16 55.8 53.0
Mario Chalmers G 74 31.7 9.7 2.8 4.9 1.9 0.1 2.2 8.0 9.3 30 12 2.5 2.3 41.6 36.8 75.4 0.05 54.0 50.0
Daequan Cook G 68 24.7 9.5 2.6 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.6 8.7 4.4 55 12 4.6 4.1 37.9 39.4 87.5 0.21 52.0 50.1
Jamario Moon G 24 25.9 7.0 4.3 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.5 5.8 7.4 -33 12 -2.8 -3.0 46.4 37.9 86.7 -0.18 57.3 55.4
Chris Quinn G 59 14.7 5.1 1.1 2.1 0.4 0.0 0.5 4.3 3.8 31 10 3.1 2.6 41.4 39.0 78.8 0.09 53.6 50.4
Luther Head G 9 17.2 4.2 2.7 2.3 1.2 0.1 1.0 4.4 5.1 - - - - 35.0 33.3 62.5 -0.15 43.7 41.2
James Jones James Jones G 38 15.4 4.1 1.5 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.3 3.7 2.8 - - - - 36.6 33.0 85.2 - 51.0 47.2
Mark Blount G 18 9.6 4.0 2.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.8 3.6 2.3 23 9 2.6 3.8 42.2 43.5 61.5 0.09 51.6 50.0
Yakhouba Diawara G 57 13.4 3.3 1.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.2 3.5 1.6 11 10 1.1 1.6 33.5 31.1 66.7 0.0 46.2 45.2
Jamaal Magloire Jamaal Magloire G 52 13.2 3.0 4.1 0.4 0.2 0.5 0.6 2.4 5.3 - - - - 51.6 0 48.3 - 52.2 51.6
Dorell Wright F 6 12.2 3.0 3.3 0.3 0.3 0.0 1.0 3.3 2.7 - - - - 40.0 0 33.3 - 39.8 40.0
Shaun Livingston G 3 11.5 2.3 0.7 1.3 0.7 0.0 1.0 2.0 2.0 - - - - 33.3 0 75.0 -0.04 45.1 33.3
Joel Anthony G 59 16.1 2.3 3.0 0.4 0.3 1.4 0.6 1.9 4.9 -10 9 -1.1 -1.3 49.1 0 64.1 -0.17 52.3 49.1
Marcus Banks G 15 9.6 2.1 0.7 1.4 0.6 0.1 0.7 2.2 2.1 - - - - 30.3 15.4 64.3 -0.18 39.6 33.3

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG