Model Predictions
| Model | Denver Nuggets | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 65.2% | 34.8% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 60.0% | 40.0% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 52.8% | 47.2% | -0.6 | ✓ (16.4 off) |
| Pythagorean | 51.8% | 48.2% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 61.1% | 38.9% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 61.1% | 38.9% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 61.1% | 38.9% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 52.0% | 48.0% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Miami Heat -17 (82-99). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Denver Nuggets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chauncey Billups * | 39 | 10-17 | 3-8 | 0-0 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 23 | 13 | - |
| Kenyon Martin * | 37 | 9-14 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 21 | - |
| Carmelo Anthony * | 32 | 5-15 | 0-2 | 9-11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 19 | 11 | - |
| Anthony Carter * | 29 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 10 | - |
| Linas Kleiza * | 26 | 2-11 | 0-6 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -4 | - |
| Nene Hilario * | 23 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 10 | - |
| JR Smith * | 19 | 3-7 | 2-4 | 2-2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 9 | - |
| Dahntay Jones * | 16 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | - |
| Chris Andersen * | 13 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5 | - |
| Johan Petro | 1 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dwyane Wade * | 39 | 12-22 | 1-5 | 8-12 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 33 | 17 | - |
| Mario Chalmers * | 36 | 4-12 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 7 | - |
| Shawn Marion * | 35 | 7-13 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 6 | - |
| Joel Anthony * | 35 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 7 | - |
| Udonis Haslem * | 33 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 7 | - |
| Daequan Cook * | 21 | 2-9 | 0-6 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | -3 | - |
| Michael Beasley * | 12 | 2-9 | 1-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1 | - |
| Chris Quinn * | 10 | 2-3 | 2-3 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 7 | - |
| James Jones * | 7 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Jamaal Magloire * | 5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | - |
| Yakhouba Diawara | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
* = starter