Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Atlanta Hawks | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 46.6% | 53.4% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 39.0% | 61.0% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 33.6% | 66.4% | +3.7 | ✗ (18.7 off) |
| Pythagorean | 46.6% | 53.4% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 48.4% | 51.6% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 43.8% | 56.2% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 43.8% | 56.2% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 42.2% | 57.8% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Atlanta Hawks -15 (93-108). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dwyane Wade * | 38 | 11-20 | 6-10 | 5-6 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 33 | 23 | - |
| Jermaine O'Neal * | 36 | 6-9 | 0-0 | 7-8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 19 | 22 | - |
| Daequan Cook * | 34 | 7-12 | 6-9 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 11 | - |
| Jamario Moon * | 27 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 0-2 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 12 | - |
| Udonis Haslem * | 25 | 5-8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 10 | - |
| Michael Beasley * | 22 | 5-12 | 1-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 8 | - |
| Mario Chalmers * | 22 | 2-5 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 9 | - |
| James Jones * | 20 | 2-4 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | - |
| Jamaal Magloire * | 11 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
Atlanta Hawks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Bibby * | 43 | 6-12 | 4-8 | 2-2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 10 | - |
| Josh Smith * | 41 | 8-14 | 0-1 | 1-3 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 17 | 17 | - |
| Al Horford * | 38 | 5-9 | 0-0 | 1-4 | 11 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 19 | - |
| Joe Johnson * | 35 | 5-13 | 1-2 | 5-9 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 2 | - |
| Flip Murray * | 29 | 4-15 | 1-5 | 6-7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 8 | - |
| Marvin Williams * | 19 | 4-9 | 0-3 | 3-3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 5 | - |
| Maurice Evans * | 16 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | - |
| Zaza Pachulia * | 15 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | - |
| Mario West | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter