Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Atlanta Hawks | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 46.6% | 53.4% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 39.0% | 61.0% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 33.6% | 66.4% | +3.7 | ✓ (9.3 off) |
| Pythagorean | 46.6% | 53.4% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 48.4% | 51.6% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 43.8% | 56.2% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 43.8% | 56.2% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 42.2% | 57.8% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Atlanta Hawks +13 (91-78). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dwyane Wade * | 42 | 10-25 | 2-9 | 9-9 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 31 | 12 | - |
| James Jones * | 39 | 1-5 | 0-3 | 4-4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 7 | - |
| Udonis Haslem * | 38 | 5-10 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 16 | - |
| Mario Chalmers * | 34 | 1-6 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 3 | - |
| Michael Beasley * | 33 | 7-12 | 2-4 | 1-4 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 17 | 11 | - |
| Joel Anthony * | 22 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 9 | - |
| Daequan Cook * | 17 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | - |
| Jamaal Magloire * | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Chris Quinn | 3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | - |
| Yakhouba Diawara | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Jermaine O'Neal | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
Atlanta Hawks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Johnson * | 44 | 10-19 | 6-8 | 1-2 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 27 | 21 | - |
| Mike Bibby * | 41 | 3-10 | 2-4 | 3-3 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 12 | - |
| Josh Smith * | 38 | 7-12 | 0-1 | 7-8 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 21 | 22 | - |
| Al Horford * | 32 | 3-9 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | - |
| Flip Murray * | 30 | 4-14 | 3-9 | 4-4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 7 | - |
| Maurice Evans * | 21 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| Zaza Pachulia * | 20 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 6-6 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 8 | - |
| Mario West | 3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Solomon Jones | 3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | - |
| Acie Law | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Randolph Morris | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
* = starter