Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Boston Celtics | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 28.1% | 71.9% | +5.5 | ✓ (1.5 off) |
| Bradley-Terry | 22.2% | 77.8% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 15.2% | 84.8% | +9.5 | ✓ (2.5 off) |
| Pythagorean | 39.8% | 60.2% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 24.2% | 75.8% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 24.4% | 75.6% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 24.4% | 75.6% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 30.4% | 69.6% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Boston Celtics +7 (105-98). Ratings: 2008-09 season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dwyane Wade * | 40 | 11-20 | 2-4 | 7-13 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 31 | 23 | - |
| Michael Beasley * | 38 | 10-20 | 0-1 | 3-4 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 23 | 18 | - |
| Mario Chalmers * | 38 | 2-9 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 7 | - |
| Jermaine O'Neal * | 36 | 8-13 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 16 | 15 | - |
| Yakhouba Diawara * | 30 | 2-7 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | - |
| James Jones * | 20 | 2-6 | 1-4 | 1-1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | - |
| Jamaal Magloire * | 19 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 10 | - |
| Chris Quinn * | 7 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | - |
| Daequan Cook * | 6 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | - |
| Joel Anthony | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
Boston Celtics
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kendrick Perkins * | 39 | 5-15 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 3 | - |
| Ray Allen * | 39 | 6-14 | 4-8 | 5-5 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 21 | 15 | - |
| Glen Davis * | 37 | 8-17 | 0-0 | 6-6 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 22 | 13 | - |
| Paul Pierce * | 36 | 10-16 | 4-5 | 4-4 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 28 | 19 | - |
| Rajon Rondo * | 34 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 10 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 22 | - |
| Mikki Moore * | 16 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | - |
| Stephon Marbury * | 13 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 5 | - |
| Eddie House * | 10 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | - |
| Tony Allen * | 10 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | - |
| Henry Walker | 1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | - |
* = starter