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Miami Heat

Also known as: Miami Heat
Program History

2004 Team Stats (79 games)

90.2
PPG
90.0
Opp
+0.2
Margin
42.5%
FG%
35.5%
3P%
76.2%
FT%
41.3
RPG
18.9
APG
13.2
TO
90.4
Est. poss./game
87.9
Adj PPG
87.8
Adj Opp PPG
#12
Scoring Rank

Model Outputs

2003-2004
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More โ†’ 1097 (#7) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More โ†’ 997 (#14) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +106 elo More โ†’ 1035 (#8) HCA +106 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +3.8 More โ†’ +0.1 (#12) HCA +3.8
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +4.3 More โ†’ +3.1 (#9) HCA +4.3
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More โ†’ 0.515 (#12) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff +0.5 More โ†’ 0.515 (#12) NetEff +0.5
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +0.0 More โ†’ 0.501 (#13) AdjNet +0.0
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +0.0 More โ†’ 0.501 (#13) AdjNet +0.0
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 87.9 | AdjD 87.8 More โ†’ 0.503 (#12) AdjO 87.9 | AdjD 87.8
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 89.8 | AdjD 87.0 More โ†’ 0.563 (#9) AdjO 89.8 | AdjD 87.0
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More โ†’ 0.553 (#10) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More โ†’ 0.565 (#9) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 127 | GP 95 More โ†’ 1048 (#10) RD 127 | GP 95

2004 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2003-10-28 @ Philadelphia 76ers L 74 - 89
2003-10-29 @ Boston Celtics L 75 - 98
2003-10-31 vs Detroit Pistons L 81 - 93
2003-11-03 @ Dallas Mavericks L 93 - 103
2003-11-04 @ San Antonio Spurs L 73 - 80
2003-11-08 vs Minnesota Timberwolves L 79 - 88
2003-11-11 @ Houston Rockets L 70 - 90
2003-11-12 vs Cleveland Cavaliers W 88 - 83
2003-11-14 vs Washington Wizards W 105 - 101
2003-11-16 @ Los Angeles Lakers L 77 - 99
2003-11-18 @ Oklahoma City Thunder W 105 - 98
2003-11-19 @ Portland Trail Blazers - Incomplete score
2003-11-21 @ Golden State Warriors L 91 - 101
2003-11-22 @ Phoenix Suns L 98 - 100
2003-11-25 vs New Orleans Pelicans W 91 - 87
2003-11-28 @ Atlanta Hawks L 83 - 95
2003-11-29 vs Toronto Raptors W 78 - 66
2003-12-03 @ Detroit Pistons L 73 - 87
2003-12-05 vs Philadelphia 76ers L 90 - 93
2003-12-06 vs San Antonio Spurs L 70 - 86
2003-12-09 vs Phoenix Suns W 92 - 72
2003-12-12 vs Memphis Grizzlies W 91 - 88
2003-12-14 @ Toronto Raptors W 90 - 89
2003-12-16 vs Atlanta Hawks W 97 - 79
2003-12-17 @ Philadelphia 76ers L 76 - 87
2003-12-19 @ Memphis Grizzlies L 83 - 97
2003-12-21 vs Golden State Warriors W 104 - 93
2003-12-23 vs Washington Wizards W 79 - 72
2003-12-26 @ Washington Wizards W 92 - 84
2003-12-27 vs New York Knicks L 80 - 100
2003-12-29 @ Chicago Bulls W 90 - 83
2003-12-30 @ New York Knicks L 73 - 102
2004-01-02 vs Orlando Magic W 112 - 101
2004-01-05 vs Indiana Pacers L 65 - 87
2004-01-07 vs Chicago Bulls W 102 - 95
2004-01-09 @ Milwaukee Bucks L 94 - 103
2004-01-10 @ Minnesota Timberwolves L 77 - 83
2004-01-13 @ Sacramento Kings L 86 - 90
2004-01-15 @ Utah Jazz L 85 - 97
2004-01-16 @ LA Clippers - Incomplete score
2004-01-18 @ Denver Nuggets L 80 - 88
2004-01-20 vs Boston Celtics L 84 - 86
2004-01-23 vs Brooklyn Nets W 85 - 64
2004-01-24 @ New York Knicks W 85 - 77
2004-01-26 vs Houston Rockets W 95 - 81
2004-01-28 @ Cleveland Cavaliers L 93 - 94
2004-01-30 vs LA Clippers W 97 - 88
2004-01-31 @ New Orleans Pelicans - Incomplete score
2004-02-02 vs Detroit Pistons L 100 - 102
2004-02-04 @ Brooklyn Nets L 88 - 99
2004-02-07 vs New York Knicks L 64 - 76
2004-02-08 @ Indiana Pacers L 91 - 97
2004-02-10 vs Los Angeles Lakers L 83 - 98
2004-02-11 @ Orlando Magic W 111 - 98
2004-02-17 vs Utah Jazz W 97 - 85
2004-02-20 vs Atlanta Hawks W 125 - 92
2004-02-21 vs Denver Nuggets W 97 - 81
2004-02-23 vs Portland Trail Blazers L 81 - 89
2004-02-28 @ Brooklyn Nets L 86 - 92
2004-02-29 @ Milwaukee Bucks L 104 - 108
2004-03-02 vs Toronto Raptors L 86 - 89
2004-03-04 vs Milwaukee Bucks W 104 - 98
2004-03-06 vs Sacramento Kings W 102 - 96
2004-03-09 vs Orlando Magic W 100 - 89
2004-03-10 @ New Orleans Pelicans L 84 - 95
2004-03-12 vs Oklahoma City Thunder W 82 - 74
2004-03-14 vs Brooklyn Nets W 104 - 95
2004-03-16 vs New Orleans Pelicans W 96 - 83
2004-03-20 vs Philadelphia 76ers W 101 - 69
2004-03-21 @ Washington Wizards W 101 - 81
2004-03-24 @ Orlando Magic W 105 - 90
2004-03-26 vs Dallas Mavericks W 119 - 118
2004-03-28 @ Indiana Pacers L 80 - 87
2004-03-29 vs Chicago Bulls W 105 - 96
2004-03-31 @ Atlanta Hawks W 100 - 97
2004-04-02 @ Detroit Pistons L 84 - 92
2004-04-03 @ Chicago Bulls W 97 - 83
2004-04-07 vs Boston Celtics W 104 - 101
2004-04-09 vs Cleveland Cavaliers W 106 - 91
2004-04-10 @ Cleveland Cavaliers L 80 - 91
2004-04-12 @ Boston Celtics W 84 - 77
2004-04-14 vs Brooklyn Nets W 96 - 84
2004-04-18 vs New Orleans Pelicans - Incomplete score
2004-04-21 vs New Orleans Pelicans - Incomplete score
2004-04-24 @ New Orleans Pelicans - Incomplete score
2004-04-27 @ New Orleans Pelicans - Incomplete score
2004-04-30 vs New Orleans Pelicans - Incomplete score
2004-05-02 @ New Orleans Pelicans L 83 - 89
2004-05-04 vs New Orleans Pelicans - Incomplete score
2004-05-06 @ Indiana Pacers - Incomplete score
2004-05-08 @ Indiana Pacers - Incomplete score
2004-05-10 vs Indiana Pacers - Incomplete score
2004-05-12 vs Indiana Pacers - Incomplete score
2004-05-15 @ Indiana Pacers - Incomplete score
2004-05-18 vs Indiana Pacers - Incomplete score

2004 Roster

Counting stats use played regular-season games. PM and RAPM use their separate model samples; PM GP shows that sample's game count.

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM GP PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Lamar Odom G 77 37.5 17.3 9.7 4.1 1.1 0.9 3.0 14.1 16.1 - - - - 43.4 29.7 74.3 - 51.9 46.0
Eddie Jones G 78 37.0 17.1 3.8 3.1 1.2 0.4 1.6 14.2 9.7 - - - - 40.7 36.0 83.9 - 53.4 48.1
Dwyane Wade G 59 35.0 16.2 4.0 4.5 1.4 0.5 3.2 13.1 10.4 - - - - 46.2 31.4 75.2 - 52.9 47.3
Rafer Alston G 79 31.5 10.3 2.7 4.5 1.4 0.2 1.6 9.4 8.1 - - - - 37.7 37.1 77.5 - 51.1 48.2
Caron Butler Caron Butler G 65 30.0 9.2 4.8 1.8 1.1 0.2 1.3 9.2 6.6 - - - - 38.0 23.7 75.6 - 44.1 38.7
Brian Grant G 74 30.3 8.7 6.9 0.9 0.6 0.4 1.1 8.0 8.5 - - - - 47.3 0.0 77.6 - 50.3 47.3
Udonis Haslem Udonis Haslem G 72 23.5 7.1 6.3 0.6 0.4 0.3 1.0 5.8 7.9 - - - - 45.2 0.0 75.1 - 51.4 45.2
Rasual Butler Rasual Butler G 45 15.0 6.8 1.4 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.6 5.6 3.0 - - - - 47.6 46.3 76.2 - 58.6 57.6
John Wallace G 36 10.1 4.4 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.7 4.0 2.1 - - - - 42.1 38.5 77.5 - 48.6 43.8
Malik Allen G 43 13.3 4.2 2.5 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.6 4.3 3.0 - - - - 41.7 0 74.2 - 44.6 41.7
Samaki Walker G 32 12.6 3.2 3.4 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 3.0 3.9 - - - - 37.5 0.0 65.9 - 43.8 37.5
Loren Woods G 37 13.3 3.2 3.5 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.7 2.5 4.5 - - - - 45.7 0 58.5 - 49.9 45.7
Wang Zhi-zhi G 13 7.3 3.1 0.8 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 3.1 1.0 - - - - 40.0 30.8 100.0 - 47.9 45.0
Tyrone Hill G 5 7.5 1.8 1.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.0 2.2 - - - - 60.0 0 75.0 - 66.6 60.0
Kirk Penney C 2 8.8 1.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.0 1.5 3.0 -1.5 - - - - 16.7 33.3 0 - 25.0 25.0
Bimbo Coles G 21 7.7 1.2 0.5 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.4 1.5 0.6 - - - - 35.5 0 66.7 - 38.6 35.5
Jerome Beasley - 2 2.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5 0.0 - - - - 33.3 0 0 - 33.3 33.3

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

Not enough players with both Numbers/Game and RAPM to plot.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG