Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Dallas Mavericks | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 48.9% | 51.1% | +1.8 | ✓ (8.2 off) |
| Bradley-Terry | 28.5% | 71.5% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 17.2% | 82.8% | +8.6 | ✓ (1.4 off) |
| Pythagorean | 42.5% | 57.5% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 32.8% | 67.2% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 29.8% | 70.2% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 29.8% | 70.2% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 33.0% | 67.0% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Dallas Mavericks +10 (103-93). Ratings: 2003-04 season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Odom * | 45 | 7-19 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 6 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 11 | - |
| Brian Grant * | 41 | 6-9 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 18 | - |
| Rafer Alston * | 40 | 6-15 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 8 | - |
| Udonis Haslem * | 36 | 8-12 | 0-0 | 4-6 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 20 | 17 | - |
| Bimbo Coles * | 25 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -1 | - |
| John Wallace * | 23 | 8-13 | 1-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 8 | - |
| Kirk Penney * | 14 | 1-6 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -3 | - |
| Malik Allen * | 11 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | - |
| Loren Woods | 5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
Dallas Mavericks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dirk Nowitzki * | 43 | 12-22 | 2-6 | 4-4 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 30 | 15 | - |
| Michael Finley * | 35 | 4-10 | 1-1 | 2-2 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 12 | - |
| Steve Nash * | 35 | 4-8 | 2-2 | 8-9 | 3 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 18 | 22 | - |
| Antoine Walker * | 34 | 6-14 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 13 | - |
| Tony Delk * | 28 | 6-9 | 3-6 | 2-2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 13 | - |
| Antawn Jamison * | 23 | 5-10 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 6 | - |
| Eduardo Najera * | 19 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | - |
| Travis Best * | 16 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | - |
| Shawn Bradley | 7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - |
* = starter