Team model
Recency Ensemble
Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def.
| Status | implemented | Short Name | EnsR |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rating Style | probability | Where Shown | teams rankings, team pages, model performance |
Model Card
Current strongest team hybrid in the strict bakeoff. It keeps the blend structure from Core Ensemble but swaps in the recency-weighted points off/def component.
Validation on this page uses stored season-level full-fit rows plus strict weekly rolling holdouts. Rolling ranks are based on average weekly log loss in the selected league/season. Current scope: All Games. All scored games in the selected league and season. AP Poll is excluded here.
Output Coverage
Stored site-output rows for this model.
| League | Season | Rows |
|---|---|---|
| WNBA | 2026 | 15 |
| WNBA | 2025 | 13 |
| WNBA | 2024 | 12 |
| WNBA | 2023 | 12 |
| WNBA | 2022 | 12 |
| WNBA | 2021 | 12 |
| WNBA | 2020 | 12 |
| WNBA | 2019 | 12 |
| WNBA | 2018 | 12 |
| WNBA | 2017 | 12 |
| WNBA | 2016 | 12 |
| WNBA | 2015 | 12 |
| WNBA | 2014 | 12 |
| WNBA | 2013 | 12 |
| WNBA | 2012 | 12 |
| WNBA | 2011 | 12 |
| WNBA | 2010 | 12 |
| WNBA | 2009 | 13 |
| WNBA | 2008 | 14 |
| WNBA | 2007 | 13 |
| WNBA | 2006 | 14 |
| WNBA | 2005 | 13 |
| WNBA | 2004 | 13 |
| WNBA | 2003 | 14 |
| WNBA | 2002 | 16 |
| NCAAWD3 | 2025-2026 | 730 |
| NCAAWD2 | 2025-2026 | 697 |
| NCAAW | 2025-2026 | 363 |
| NCAAW | 2024-2025 | 362 |
| NCAAW | 2023-2024 | 360 |
| NCAAW | 2022-2023 | 361 |
| NCAAW | 2021-2022 | 356 |
| NCAAW | 2008-2009 | 345 |
| NCAAW | 2007-2008 | 339 |
| NCAAW | 2006-2007 | 335 |
| NCAAW | 2005-2006 | 332 |
| NCAAW | 2004-2005 | 328 |
| NCAAMD3 | 2025-2026 | 781 |
| NCAAMD2 | 2025-2026 | 603 |
| NCAAM | 2024-2025 | 364 |
| NCAAM | 2023-2024 | 362 |
| NCAAM | 2022-2023 | 363 |
| NCAAM | 2021-2022 | 358 |
| NCAAM | 2012-2013 | 347 |
| NCAAM | 2011-2012 | 345 |
| NCAAM | 2010-2011 | 345 |
| NCAAM | 2009-2010 | 347 |
| NCAAM | 2008-2009 | 347 |
| NCAAM | 2007-2008 | 341 |
| NCAAM | 2006-2007 | 336 |
| NCAAM | 2005-2006 | 334 |
| NCAAM | 2004-2005 | 330 |
| NBA | 2025-2026 | 30 |
| NBA | 2024-2025 | 30 |
| NBA | 2023-2024 | 30 |
| NBA | 2022-2023 | 30 |
| NBA | 2021-2022 | 30 |
| NBA | 2020-2021 | 30 |
| NBA | 2010-2011 | 30 |
| NBA | 2008-2009 | 30 |
| NBA | 2007-2008 | 30 |
| NBA | 2005-2006 | 30 |
| NBA | 2004-2005 | 30 |
| NBA | 2003-2004 | 29 |
| NBA | 2000-2001 | 29 |
| NBA | 1998-1999 | 29 |
| NBA | 1997-1998 | 29 |
| NBA | 1996-1997 | 29 |
| GLEAGUE | 2025-2026 | 31 |
| GLEAGUE | 2024-2025 | 31 |
| GLEAGUE | 2023-2024 | 31 |
| GLEAGUE | 2022-2023 | 30 |
| GLEAGUE | 2021-2022 | 28 |
| GLEAGUE | 2020-2021 | 18 |
| GLEAGUE | 2019-2020 | 28 |
| GLEAGUE | 2018-2019 | 27 |
| GLEAGUE | 2017-2018 | 26 |
| GLEAGUE | 2016-2017 | 22 |
| GLEAGUE | 2015-2016 | 19 |
| GLEAGUE | 2014-2015 | 18 |
| GLEAGUE | 2013-2014 | 17 |
| GLEAGUE | 2012-2013 | 16 |
| GLEAGUE | 2011-2012 | 16 |
| GLEAGUE | 2010-2011 | 16 |
| GLEAGUE | 2009-2010 | 16 |
| GLEAGUE | 2008-2009 | 16 |
| GLEAGUE | 2007-2008 | 14 |
| GLEAGUE | 2006-2007 | 12 |
| GLEAGUE | 2005-2006 | 8 |
| GLEAGUE | 2004-2005 | 6 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2026-2027 | 20 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2025-2026 | 20 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2024-2025 | 18 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2023-2024 | 18 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2022-2023 | 18 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2021-2022 | 18 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2020-2021 | 18 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2019-2020 | 18 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2017-2018 | 16 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2016-2017 | 16 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2015-2016 | 24 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2014-2015 | 24 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2013-2014 | 24 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2012-2013 | 24 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2011-2012 | 24 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2010-2011 | 24 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2009-2010 | 24 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2008-2009 | 24 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2007-2008 | 24 |
| EUROCUP | 2026-2027 | 32 |
| EUROCUP | 2025-2026 | 20 |
| EUROCUP | 2024-2025 | 20 |
| EUROCUP | 2023-2024 | 20 |
| EUROCUP | 2022-2023 | 20 |
| EUROCUP | 2021-2022 | 20 |
| EUROCUP | 2020-2021 | 24 |
| EUROCUP | 2019-2020 | 24 |
| EUROCUP | 2018-2019 | 24 |
| EUROCUP | 2017-2018 | 24 |
| EUROCUP | 2016-2017 | 20 |
| EUROCUP | 2015-2016 | 44 |
| EUROCUP | 2014-2015 | 44 |
| EUROCUP | 2013-2014 | 56 |
| EUROCUP | 2012-2013 | 32 |
| EUROCUP | 2011-2012 | 32 |
| EUROCUP | 2010-2011 | 32 |
| EUROCUP | 2009-2010 | 32 |
| EUROCUP | 2007-2008 | 54 |