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Cal Poly

Season: 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017
Also known as: Cal Poly Mustangs
Program History
Coach: Mike DeGeorge

2026 Team Stats (32 games)

81.5
PPG
84.5
Opp
-3.0
Margin
43.1%
FG%
33.1%
3P%
78.4%
FT%
38.2
RPG
13.7
APG
15.2
TO
87.1
Pace
81.1
AdjO
85.0
AdjD
#223
Rank

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 993 (#183) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 867 (#281) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +109 elo More → 1074 (#79) HCA +109 elo
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +109 elo More → 956 (#592) HCA +109 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.2 More → -3.6 (#215) HCA +2.2
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.5 More → +15.0 (#152) HCA +2.5
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.5 More → +10.5 (#227) HCA +2.5
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.366 (#255) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff -59.8 More → 0.005 (#362) NetEff -59.8
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -5.1 More → 0.357 (#223) AdjNet -5.1
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -5.1 More → 0.356 (#222) AdjNet -5.1
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 81.1 | AdjD 85.0 More → 0.410 (#223) AdjO 81.1 | AdjD 85.0
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 73.0 | AdjD 68.5 More → 0.603 (#116) AdjO 73.0 | AdjD 68.5
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 80.5 | AdjD 79.9 More → 0.513 (#218) AdjO 80.5 | AdjD 79.9
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.838 (#90) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.679 (#232) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.807 (#87) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.645 (#230) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 114 | GP 32 More → 1220 (#57) RD 114 | GP 32
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 136 | GP 32 More → 1013 (#231) RD 136 | GP 32

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-03 @ USC Trojans L 64 - 94
2025-11-05 vs Pacific Lutheran Lutes W 101 - 79
2025-11-08 @ Seattle U Redhawks W 73 - 71
2025-11-12 @ Colorado State Rams L 79 - 93
2025-11-14 @ Montana Grizzlies L 82 - 90
2025-11-20 @ Utah Utes W 92 - 85
2025-11-24 @ Northern Arizona Lumberjacks L 87 - 93
2025-11-25 vs Southeast Missouri State Redhawks L 68 - 84
2025-11-29 vs Redlands Bulldogs W 87 - 81
2025-12-04 @ Cal State Fullerton Titans W 94 - 91
2025-12-16 vs Montana State Bobcats L 80 - 83
2025-12-19 @ UCLA Bruins L 87 - 108
2025-12-21 vs Idaho Vandals L 80 - 83
2026-01-01 vs UC San Diego Tritons W 67 - 65
2026-01-03 @ Long Beach State Beach L 66 - 74
2026-01-08 @ Cal State Northridge Matadors L 90 - 95
2026-01-10 vs UC Davis Aggies W 84 - 78
2026-01-15 vs Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors L 66 - 86
2026-01-22 @ UC Santa Barbara Gauchos L 67 - 107
2026-01-24 vs Cal State Fullerton Titans L 78 - 93
2026-01-29 @ Cal State Bakersfield Roadrunners W 104 - 79
2026-01-31 @ UC Riverside Highlanders W 94 - 87
2026-02-05 vs Cal State Northridge Matadors L 96 - 97
2026-02-07 @ UC Davis Aggies L 58 - 67
2026-02-12 vs UC Irvine Anteaters W 79 - 73
2026-02-14 vs UC Santa Barbara Gauchos W 89 - 79
2026-02-19 @ Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors W 69 - 63
2026-02-26 vs Long Beach State Beach W 102 - 92
2026-02-28 @ UC San Diego Tritons L 64 - 80
2026-03-05 @ UC Irvine Anteaters L 85 - 107
2026-03-07 vs Cal State Bakersfield Roadrunners W 108 - 76
2026-03-11 @ UC San Diego Tritons L 69 - 72

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
H. Mousa H. Mousa G 31 31.0 19.8 6.1 1.9 1.0 0.4 2.5 13.6 13.1 -32 -1.5 -2.5 43.8 36.9 87.2 -0.39 60.8 53.3
C. Ward C. Ward - 32 29.1 14.6 6.3 1.7 0.8 0.2 2.9 10.3 10.3 -112 -4.9 -8.8 46.4 31.5 75.5 -1.08 59.3 54.2
P. Bandelj P. Bandelj - 31 30.4 12.9 4.1 3.3 1.3 0.2 2.5 9.5 9.7 -38 -1.7 -3.2 41.2 34.4 84.7 -0.05 57.5 50.7
Jess Esso Essis Jess Esso Essis G 7 17.4 8.6 3.6 1.0 0.4 0.4 1.6 6.0 6.4 10 5.0 15.5 47.6 41.4 88.9 0.14 65.3 61.9
G. Vasilic G. Vasilic - 29 23.4 7.7 2.4 1.1 0.6 0.2 1.0 6.3 4.7 43 2.1 5.0 40.2 37.7 77.8 0.91 57.2 55.2
J. Mosley J. Mosley - 17 12.5 5.6 1.2 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.4 4.8 2.6 2 0.3 1.4 39.0 29.2 70.8 0.13 51.3 47.6
Jake Davis Jake Davis - 31 21.5 5.5 3.2 1.8 1.1 0.2 1.4 5.5 5.0 16 0.7 1.7 33.7 25.2 74.4 0.36 45.4 41.4
Austin Goode Austin Goode - 31 16.3 5.3 2.6 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.8 4.7 3.9 -35 -1.6 -7.3 42.8 30.9 73.7 -0.62 53.1 51.4
K. Elliott K. Elliott - 17 17.5 5.2 3.4 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.6 3.7 5.3 -81 -4.5 -12.3 49.2 38.1 82.6 -0.38 60.9 55.6
Troy Plumtree Troy Plumtree - 29 11.7 4.7 2.2 0.7 0.4 0.2 1.1 3.7 3.3 -8 -0.4 -2.0 54.2 24.1 68.4 0.0 58.9 57.5
Ali Assran Ali Assran - 30 12.6 3.3 3.3 0.8 0.4 0.6 1.2 2.8 4.4 -9 -0.4 -1.7 41.0 19.2 60.0 -0.21 48.6 44.0
L. Tarlac L. Tarlac - 11 15.4 2.8 1.9 2.2 0.4 0.1 1.6 2.5 3.3 -52 -3.7 -19.1 40.7 11.1 53.3 -0.56 46.1 42.6
Jason Scott Jason Scott - 8 5.6 2.4 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.4 1.8 1.2 7 0.9 18.4 35.7 57.1 62.5 0.09 54.2 50.0
A. Price Jr. A. Price Jr. - 21 6.1 2.0 1.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.4 1.6 1.7 88 4.9 9.4 54.5 50.0 50.0 0.86 59.0 59.1
E. Brown E. Brown - 5 3.4 0.6 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.0 -33 -2.8 -26.5 25.0 0 50.0 -0.53 30.7 25.0
Braden Freeman Braden Freeman F 0 - 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG