Model Predictions
| Model | UC San Diego Tritons | Cal Poly Mustangs | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 53.3% | 46.7% | -2.7 | ✗ (4.7 off) |
| Bradley-Terry | 64.6% | 35.4% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 66.5% | 33.5% | -3.8 | ✗ (5.8 off) |
| Pythagorean | 61.1% | 38.9% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 80.7% | 19.3% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 75.0% | 25.0% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 75.0% | 25.0% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 56.6% | 43.4% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Cal Poly Mustangs +2 (67-65). Ratings: 2025-26 season-end ratings.
UC San Diego Tritons
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leo Beath * | 31 | 2-11 | 1-6 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | -2 | -14.4 |
| Tom Beattie * | 30 | 3-9 | 0-5 | 1-2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 7 | -9.2 |
| Bol Dengdit * | 24 | 5-10 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 13 | +3.7 |
| Aidan Burke * | 23 | 2-9 | 1-7 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -3 | -19.9 |
| Emanuel Prospere II * | 19 | 0-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | -1 | +0.3 |
| Hudson Mayes | 27 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 4-5 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 19 | +0.8 |
| Alex Chaikin | 24 | 5-13 | 5-10 | 2-2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 8 | +3.4 |
| Jaden Vance | 13 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -3.0 |
| Trap Johnson | 9 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | +6.5 |
Cal Poly Mustangs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hamad Mousa * | 36 | 9-17 | 5-10 | 3-5 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 26 | 18 | +14.5 |
| Cayden Ward * | 33 | 2-11 | 1-7 | 3-4 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 8 | -5.1 |
| Peter Bandelj * | 32 | 5-12 | 3-8 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 6 | +2.4 |
| Jake Davis * | 31 | 2-9 | 0-4 | 2-2 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 7 | +11.1 |
| Guzman Vasilic * | 29 | 2-10 | 2-10 | 0-1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | +20.3 |
| Luka Tarlac | 18 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -16.5 |
| Ali Assran | 16 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 11 | +6.5 |
| Austin Goode | 5 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | -1.3 |
* = starter