Model Predictions
| Model | UC San Diego Tritons | Cal Poly Mustangs | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 62.5% | 37.5% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 71.0% | 29.0% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 67.2% | 32.8% | -3.9 | ✗ (5.9 off) |
| Pythagorean | 61.1% | 38.9% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 97.0% | 3.0% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 75.0% | 25.0% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 75.1% | 24.9% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 57.7% | 42.3% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Cal Poly Mustangs +2 (67-65). Predictions use season-end ratings.
UC San Diego Tritons
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Beath | 31 | 2-11 | 1-6 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | -2 | -15.0 |
| T. Beattie | 30 | 3-9 | 0-5 | 1-2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 7 | -8.4 |
| H. Mayes | 27 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 4-5 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 19 | +0.4 |
| A. Chaikin | 24 | 5-13 | 5-10 | 2-2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 8 | +6.7 |
| B. Dengdit | 24 | 5-10 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 13 | +6.6 |
| A. Burke | 23 | 2-9 | 1-7 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -3 | -13.1 |
| E. Prospere II | 19 | 0-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | -1 | -2.3 |
| J. Vance | 13 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | +0.5 |
| T. Johnson | 9 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | +9.3 |
Cal Poly Mustangs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H. Mousa | 36 | 9-17 | 5-10 | 3-5 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 26 | 18 | +10.0 |
| C. Ward | 33 | 2-11 | 1-7 | 3-4 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 8 | -3.1 |
| P. Bandelj | 32 | 5-12 | 3-8 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 6 | -3.2 |
| J. Davis | 31 | 2-9 | 0-4 | 2-2 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 7 | +10.3 |
| G. Vasilic | 29 | 2-10 | 2-10 | 0-1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | +13.8 |
| L. Tarlac | 18 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -14.9 |
| A. Assran | 16 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 11 | +6.0 |
| A. Goode | 5 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | -1.7 |
* = starter