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2026-01-01

Model Predictions

Model UC San Diego Tritons Cal Poly Mustangs Spread Result
Elo 62.5% 37.5% -
Bradley-Terry 71.0% 29.0% -
Margin 67.2% 32.8% -3.9 (5.9 off)
Pythagorean 61.1% 38.9% -
Efficiency 97.0% 3.0% -
Adjusted Efficiency 75.0% 25.0% -
Log Adjusted 75.1% 24.9% -
Points Off/Def 57.7% 42.3% -

Actual: Cal Poly Mustangs +2 (67-65). Predictions use season-end ratings.

UC San Diego Tritons

Player MIN FG 3PT FT REB AST STL BLK TO PTS Numbers RAPM GS
L. Beath 31 2-11 1-6 2-2 1 0 2 0 1 7 -2 -15.0
T. Beattie 30 3-9 0-5 1-2 3 3 3 0 0 7 7 -8.4
H. Mayes 27 4-6 0-0 4-5 12 1 0 0 0 12 19 +0.4
A. Chaikin 24 5-13 5-10 2-2 3 0 1 0 0 17 8 +6.7
B. Dengdit 24 5-10 0-1 2-2 12 2 0 0 3 12 13 +6.6
A. Burke 23 2-9 1-7 0-0 0 0 1 1 1 5 -3 -13.1
E. Prospere II 19 0-4 0-1 0-0 2 4 1 0 4 0 -1 -2.3
J. Vance 13 0-0 0-0 0-0 4 1 0 0 1 0 4 +0.5
T. Johnson 9 2-3 1-2 0-0 2 1 0 0 1 5 4 +9.3

Cal Poly Mustangs

Player MIN FG 3PT FT REB AST STL BLK TO PTS Numbers RAPM GS
H. Mousa 36 9-17 5-10 3-5 9 2 0 1 3 26 18 +10.0
C. Ward 33 2-11 1-7 3-4 11 0 1 1 2 8 8 -3.1
P. Bandelj 32 5-12 3-8 2-2 3 1 0 0 1 15 6 -3.2
J. Davis 31 2-9 0-4 2-2 5 3 2 1 1 6 7 +10.3
G. Vasilic 29 2-10 2-10 0-1 2 0 2 0 0 6 0 +13.8
L. Tarlac 18 1-3 0-2 0-0 3 2 0 0 1 2 3 -14.9
A. Assran 16 2-3 0-0 0-0 6 2 1 1 0 4 11 +6.0
A. Goode 5 0-1 0-1 0-0 1 0 0 0 1 0 -1 -1.7

* = starter