Model Predictions
| Model | UC Davis Aggies | Cal Poly Mustangs | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 44.4% | 55.6% | +0.0 | ✓ (6.0 off) |
| Bradley-Terry | 55.6% | 44.4% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 52.2% | 47.8% | -0.5 | ✗ (6.5 off) |
| Pythagorean | 54.8% | 45.2% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 65.7% | 34.3% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 62.3% | 37.7% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 62.2% | 37.8% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 49.3% | 50.7% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Cal Poly Mustangs +6 (84-78). Ratings: 2025-26 season-end ratings.
UC Davis Aggies
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brayden Fagbemi * | 33 | 2-10 | 1-1 | 4-6 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 4 | -2.7 |
| Connor Sevilla * | 30 | 3-14 | 2-8 | 3-3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 1 | -6.6 |
| Nils Cooper * | 27 | 5-8 | 0-0 | 8-9 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 24 | -0.5 |
| Isaiah Chappell * | 25 | 2-7 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 4 | +9.7 |
| Marcus Wilson * | 20 | 3-8 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 6 | -5.0 |
| Carl Daughtery Jr. | 32 | 6-10 | 4-8 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 10 | -1.7 |
| Jalen Stokes | 17 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 6 | -8.3 |
| Omer Suljanovic | 10 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -0.9 |
| Cyril Franklin Jr. | 4 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | +0.4 |
| Chase Rawlins | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -0.8 |
Cal Poly Mustangs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Davis * | 37 | 5-10 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 11 | -4.7 |
| Hamad Mousa * | 36 | 6-14 | 2-8 | 10-10 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 24 | 23 | +3.3 |
| Kieran Elliott * | 26 | 3-6 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 6 | -8.9 |
| Cayden Ward * | 26 | 2-8 | 1-5 | 8-8 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 13 | +7.9 |
| Peter Bandelj * | 22 | 3-7 | 3-6 | 5-6 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 13 | -2.0 |
| Jackson Mosley | 23 | 3-8 | 1-5 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 1 | +1.2 |
| Guzman Vasilic | 19 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +0.6 |
| Austin Goode | 11 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +6.7 |
* = starter