Model Predictions
| Model | Cal Poly Mustangs | UC Irvine Anteaters | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 15.4% | 84.6% | +11.4 | ✓ (10.6 off) |
| Bradley-Terry | 23.9% | 76.1% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 15.0% | 85.0% | +9.5 | ✓ (12.5 off) |
| Pythagorean | 31.9% | 68.1% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 11.3% | 88.7% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 15.2% | 84.8% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 15.2% | 84.8% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 28.5% | 71.5% | - | ✓ |
Actual: UC Irvine Anteaters +22 (107-85). Ratings: 2025-26 season-end ratings.
Cal Poly Mustangs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hamad Mousa * | 32 | 5-14 | 1-4 | 4-5 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 15 | 13 | -13.6 |
| Peter Bandelj * | 32 | 2-8 | 2-6 | 2-2 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 9 | -11.6 |
| Cayden Ward * | 30 | 6-10 | 1-4 | 3-4 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 10 | -23.4 |
| Guzman Vasilic * | 25 | 3-9 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 4 | -12.1 |
| Austin Goode * | 24 | 5-14 | 1-7 | 2-3 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 5 | -16.6 |
| Jackson Mosley | 15 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 | -7.1 |
| Ali Assran | 14 | 3-5 | 0-1 | 3-4 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 7 | -2.7 |
| Jake Davis | 13 | 1-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -8.0 |
| Troy Plumtree | 13 | 3-9 | 0-3 | 1-1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 1 | -8.3 |
| Aaron Price Jr. | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | -3.0 |
UC Irvine Anteaters
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derin Saran * | 30 | 2-6 | 0-2 | 3-4 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 14 | +20.4 |
| Kyle Evans * | 29 | 7-11 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 17 | 19 | +25.4 |
| Jurian Dixon * | 29 | 8-16 | 2-6 | 4-4 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 22 | 16 | +12.9 |
| Tama Isaac * | 25 | 3-4 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 12 | +20.4 |
| Akiva McBirney-Griffin * | 11 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 6-7 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 12 | +1.2 |
| Andre Henry | 27 | 6-14 | 1-6 | 3-4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 9 | +8.1 |
| Harrison Carrington | 20 | 6-7 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 16 | +7.1 |
| Jovan Jester Jr. | 10 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | +5.5 |
| Elijah Chol | 9 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | +4.2 |
| Nes Emeneke | 7 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -2.7 |
| Ben Egbo | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2.6 |
| Tishan Ahir | 1 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | +2.9 |
* = starter