Model Predictions
| Model | Cal Poly Mustangs | UC Davis Aggies | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 28.4% | 71.6% | +5.4 | ✓ (3.6 off) |
| Bradley-Terry | 31.0% | 69.0% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 28.5% | 71.5% | +5.1 | ✓ (3.9 off) |
| Pythagorean | 39.2% | 60.8% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 28.3% | 71.7% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 31.7% | 68.3% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 31.8% | 68.2% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 37.3% | 62.7% | - | ✓ |
Actual: UC Davis Aggies +9 (67-58). Ratings: 2025-26 season-end ratings.
Cal Poly Mustangs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hamad Mousa * | 33 | 2-12 | 0-6 | 8-8 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 5 | -8.4 |
| Jake Davis * | 32 | 1-7 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | -17.5 |
| Peter Bandelj * | 30 | 3-10 | 1-4 | 2-2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 1 | -5.9 |
| Guzman Vasilic * | 27 | 1-4 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | +2.7 |
| Cayden Ward * | 25 | 4-12 | 3-8 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 3 | -12.3 |
| Jess Esso Essis | 23 | 5-7 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 13 | -13.0 |
| Austin Goode | 11 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | -0.6 |
| Jackson Mosley | 11 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -0.9 |
| Troy Plumtree | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3.7 |
| Ali Assran | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | +1.6 |
UC Davis Aggies
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carl Daughtery Jr. * | 34 | 3-10 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 6 | +20.5 |
| Marcus Wilson * | 33 | 8-16 | 1-4 | 7-8 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 24 | 16 | +16.1 |
| Connor Sevilla * | 30 | 6-16 | 5-13 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 19 | -1 | -0.2 |
| Jalen Stokes * | 16 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 7 | +8.3 |
| Niko Rocak * | 15 | 2-5 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2 | +4.0 |
| Brayden Fagbemi | 33 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 10 | +8.7 |
| Nils Cooper | 23 | 2-7 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | +1.0 |
| Isaiah Chappell | 12 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -5.2 |
| Omer Suljanovic | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -6.7 |
| Cyril Franklin Jr. | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0.0 |
* = starter