Model Predictions
| Model | Cal Poly Mustangs | UC Santa Barbara Gauchos | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 29.2% | 70.8% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 32.2% | 67.8% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 20.5% | 79.5% | +7.5 | ✓ (32.5 off) |
| Pythagorean | 34.5% | 65.5% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 16.3% | 83.7% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 23.5% | 76.5% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 23.5% | 76.5% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 32.4% | 67.6% | - | ✓ |
Actual: UC Santa Barbara Gauchos +40 (107-67). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Cal Poly Mustangs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Davis | 27 | 3-11 | 1-7 | 4-4 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 4 | -25.4 |
| Cayden Ward | 25 | 3-6 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -1 | -36.4 |
| Hamad Mousa | 25 | 2-3 | 2-2 | 4-5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 10 | -32.6 |
| Peter Bandelj | 23 | 2-7 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -2 | -24.7 |
| Luka Tarlac | 21 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 3-6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 7 | -9.6 |
| Kieran Elliott | 21 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 6 | -27.6 |
| Austin Goode | 17 | 3-8 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | -1 | -0.5 |
| Ali Assran | 15 | 2-3 | 0-1 | 1-1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | -18.9 |
| Aaron Price Jr. | 12 | 3-4 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 8 | +2.9 |
| Troy Plumtree | 10 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -1.3 |
| Eric Brown | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +6.7 |
UC Santa Barbara Gauchos
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aidan Mahaney | 23 | 6-9 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 9 | +13.7 |
| Miro Little | 22 | 5-6 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 5 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 22 | +26.2 |
| CJ Shaw | 22 | 6-9 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 12 | +21.1 |
| Zion Sensley | 21 | 8-12 | 3-5 | 1-1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 14 | +18.8 |
| Colin Smith | 20 | 4-7 | 2-5 | 1-2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 7 | +19.8 |
| Marvin McGhee IV | 19 | 3-7 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 1 | +17.6 |
| Hosana Kitenge | 18 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 8 | +22.1 |
| Koat Keat Tong | 12 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 11 | +4.8 |
| Zachiah Clark | 11 | 5-6 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 8 | +2.4 |
| Michael Simcoe | 11 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | +13.2 |
| Luke Zuffelato | 8 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +1.8 |
| Evans Kipruto | 7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1.8 |
| Isaac Shingange | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1.8 |
| Kyle Haughy | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2.9 |
| John Simcoe | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1.8 |
* = starter