Model Predictions
| Model | Cal Poly Mustangs | UC Santa Barbara Gauchos | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 37.1% | 62.9% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 27.6% | 72.4% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 20.3% | 79.7% | +7.5 | ✓ (32.5 off) |
| Pythagorean | 34.5% | 65.5% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 1.0% | 99.0% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 23.6% | 76.4% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 23.5% | 76.5% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 32.0% | 68.0% | - | ✓ |
Actual: UC Santa Barbara Gauchos +40 (107-67). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Cal Poly Mustangs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Davis | 27 | 3-11 | 1-7 | 4-4 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 4 | -14.6 |
| H. Mousa | 25 | 2-3 | 2-2 | 4-5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 10 | -28.7 |
| C. Ward | 25 | 3-6 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -1 | -29.4 |
| P. Bandelj | 23 | 2-7 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -2 | -21.4 |
| L. Tarlac | 21 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 3-6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 7 | -10.4 |
| K. Elliott | 21 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 6 | -23.9 |
| A. Goode | 17 | 3-8 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | -1 | -2.9 |
| A. Assran | 15 | 2-3 | 0-1 | 1-1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | -20.3 |
| A. Price Jr. | 12 | 3-4 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 8 | - |
| T. Plumtree | 10 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | - |
| E. Brown | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - |
UC Santa Barbara Gauchos
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Mahaney | 23 | 6-9 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 9 | +9.8 |
| C. Shaw | 22 | 6-9 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 12 | +19.2 |
| M. Little | 22 | 5-6 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 5 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 22 | +22.1 |
| Z. Sensley | 21 | 8-12 | 3-5 | 1-1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 14 | +18.7 |
| C. Smith | 20 | 4-7 | 2-5 | 1-2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 7 | +17.4 |
| M. McGhee IV | 19 | 3-7 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 1 | +18.3 |
| H. Kitenge | 18 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 8 | +13.1 |
| K. Keat Tong | 12 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 11 | +8.5 |
| M. Simcoe | 11 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | +11.8 |
| Z. Clark | 11 | 5-6 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 8 | +5.0 |
| L. Zuffelato | 8 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +5.0 |
| E. Kipruto | 7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +3.8 |
| I. Shingange | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| K. Haughy | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| J. Simcoe | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter