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2026-01-22

Model Predictions

Model Cal Poly Mustangs UC Santa Barbara Gauchos Spread Result
Elo 37.1% 62.9% -
Bradley-Terry 27.6% 72.4% -
Margin 20.3% 79.7% +7.5 (32.5 off)
Pythagorean 34.5% 65.5% -
Efficiency 1.0% 99.0% -
Adjusted Efficiency 23.6% 76.4% -
Log Adjusted 23.5% 76.5% -
Points Off/Def 32.0% 68.0% -

Actual: UC Santa Barbara Gauchos +40 (107-67). Predictions use season-end ratings.

Cal Poly Mustangs

Player MIN FG 3PT FT REB AST STL BLK TO PTS Numbers RAPM GS
J. Davis 27 3-11 1-7 4-4 5 1 1 0 3 11 4 -14.6
H. Mousa 25 2-3 2-2 4-5 0 3 2 0 2 10 10 -28.7
C. Ward 25 3-6 0-3 0-0 1 0 0 0 2 6 -1 -29.4
P. Bandelj 23 2-7 1-4 1-2 0 1 0 0 2 6 -2 -21.4
L. Tarlac 21 1-2 0-1 3-6 1 4 1 0 2 5 7 -10.4
K. Elliott 21 3-4 0-0 1-2 2 0 1 0 0 7 6 -23.9
A. Goode 17 3-8 1-5 0-0 1 0 0 0 1 7 -1 -2.9
A. Assran 15 2-3 0-1 1-1 0 2 0 0 0 5 4 -20.3
A. Price Jr. 12 3-4 2-3 0-0 3 0 1 0 0 8 8 -
T. Plumtree 10 1-1 0-0 0-0 0 1 0 0 0 2 2 -
E. Brown 4 0-0 0-0 0-0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 -

UC Santa Barbara Gauchos

Player MIN FG 3PT FT REB AST STL BLK TO PTS Numbers RAPM GS
A. Mahaney 23 6-9 2-4 1-2 2 1 0 0 0 15 9 +9.8
C. Shaw 22 6-9 4-6 0-0 1 2 2 0 0 16 12 +19.2
M. Little 22 5-6 2-2 0-0 5 11 1 0 1 12 22 +22.1
Z. Sensley 21 8-12 3-5 1-1 7 0 0 0 1 20 14 +18.7
C. Smith 20 4-7 2-5 1-2 1 4 0 0 2 11 7 +17.4
M. McGhee IV 19 3-7 2-6 0-0 1 1 0 0 2 8 1 +18.3
H. Kitenge 18 3-3 0-0 0-0 4 2 1 0 2 6 8 +13.1
K. Keat Tong 12 2-3 0-0 2-2 4 1 2 1 0 6 11 +8.5
M. Simcoe 11 0-0 0-0 0-0 4 1 1 0 1 0 5 +11.8
Z. Clark 11 5-6 0-0 2-2 2 0 0 0 0 12 8 +5.0
L. Zuffelato 8 0-1 0-1 1-2 0 0 2 0 0 1 2 +5.0
E. Kipruto 7 0-0 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +3.8
I. Shingange 2 0-0 0-0 0-0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 -
K. Haughy 2 0-0 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -
J. Simcoe 2 0-0 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -

* = starter