Model Predictions
| Model | Cal Poly Mustangs | Cal State Northridge Matadors | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 22.5% | 77.5% | +7.8 | ✓ (2.8 off) |
| Bradley-Terry | 29.1% | 70.9% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 31.1% | 68.9% | +4.4 | ✓ (0.6 off) |
| Pythagorean | 40.5% | 59.5% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 31.5% | 68.5% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 37.3% | 62.7% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 37.4% | 62.6% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 38.6% | 61.4% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Cal State Northridge Matadors +5 (95-90). Ratings: 2025-26 season-end ratings.
Cal Poly Mustangs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cayden Ward * | 36 | 6-13 | 4-6 | 5-8 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 21 | 17 | -19.6 |
| Hamad Mousa * | 35 | 11-25 | 7-16 | 5-6 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 34 | 19 | -5.6 |
| Peter Bandelj * | 35 | 4-12 | 2-7 | 3-4 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 7 | -8.1 |
| Jake Davis * | 25 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 9 | +1.1 |
| Kieran Elliott * | 23 | 3-4 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 10 | -0.5 |
| Guzman Vasilic | 31 | 3-12 | 3-12 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | -1 | -6.9 |
| Ali Assran | 9 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -9.1 |
| Luka Tarlac | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2.7 |
| Aaron Price Jr. | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | +1.8 |
| Austin Goode | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.2 |
Cal State Northridge Matadors
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josiah Davis * | 40 | 8-11 | 1-1 | 6-10 | 8 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 23 | 32 | +5.2 |
| Joshua O'Garro * | 35 | 7-16 | 1-3 | 5-6 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 12 | +4.5 |
| Mahmoud Fofana * | 29 | 7-8 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 12 | +17.7 |
| Davius Loury * | 26 | 1-8 | 1-4 | 2-2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | +7.1 |
| Jai Chisolm * | 24 | 1-6 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | -6.9 |
| James Evans Jr. | 28 | 6-10 | 5-6 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 16 | +25.4 |
| Grady Lewis | 12 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 5 | -1.3 |
| Aleks Szymczyk | 6 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1-3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -6.0 |
* = starter