Model Predictions
| Model | Cal Poly Mustangs | Cal State Northridge Matadors | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 25.9% | 74.1% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 26.0% | 74.0% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 31.3% | 68.7% | +4.3 | ✓ (0.7 off) |
| Pythagorean | 40.5% | 59.5% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 1.0% | 99.0% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 37.4% | 62.6% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 37.4% | 62.6% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 38.3% | 61.7% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Cal State Northridge Matadors +5 (95-90). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Cal Poly Mustangs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Ward | 36 | 6-13 | 4-6 | 5-8 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 21 | 17 | -13.3 |
| P. Bandelj | 35 | 4-12 | 2-7 | 3-4 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 7 | -6.3 |
| H. Mousa | 35 | 11-25 | 7-16 | 5-6 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 34 | 19 | -5.8 |
| G. Vasilic | 31 | 3-12 | 3-12 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | -1 | -7.4 |
| J. Davis | 25 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 9 | - |
| K. Elliott | 23 | 3-4 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 10 | +5.2 |
| A. Assran | 9 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -6.9 |
| L. Tarlac | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1.9 |
| A. Price Jr. | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
| A. Goode | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1.0 |
Cal State Northridge Matadors
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Davis | 40 | 8-11 | 1-1 | 6-10 | 8 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 23 | 32 | - |
| J. O'Garro | 35 | 7-16 | 1-3 | 5-6 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 12 | -1.5 |
| M. Fofana | 29 | 7-8 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 12 | +13.7 |
| J. Evans Jr. | 28 | 6-10 | 5-6 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 16 | +21.5 |
| D. Loury | 26 | 1-8 | 1-4 | 2-2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | +5.4 |
| J. Chisolm | 24 | 1-6 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | -6.6 |
| G. Lewis | 12 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 5 | +0.7 |
| A. Szymczyk | 6 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1-3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -8.1 |
* = starter