Model Predictions
| Model | Cal Poly Mustangs | Colorado State Rams | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 15.6% | 84.4% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 21.0% | 79.0% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 8.0% | 92.0% | +13.4 | ✓ (0.6 off) |
| Pythagorean | 33.9% | 66.1% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 14.6% | 85.4% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 6.3% | 93.7% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 6.2% | 93.8% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 23.0% | 77.0% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Colorado State Rams +14 (93-79). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Cal Poly Mustangs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peter Bandelj * | 29 | 5-10 | 2-6 | 2-2 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 11 | +5.6 |
| Cayden Ward * | 28 | 4-10 | 2-6 | 2-3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 5 | -8.8 |
| Hamad Mousa * | 28 | 5-13 | 4-7 | 4-6 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 9 | +2.4 |
| Jake Davis * | 27 | 2-7 | 2-7 | 2-2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 3 | -8.1 |
| Kieran Elliott * | 20 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 | -13.3 |
| Guzman Vasilic | 17 | 3-5 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 10 | +17.2 |
| Ali Assran | 17 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 1-4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -5.3 |
| Austin Goode | 11 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -8.7 |
| Aaron Price Jr. | 9 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3.6 |
| Troy Plumtree | 9 | 3-5 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | +2.7 |
| Jason Scott | 5 | 2-3 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 4 | +3.8 |
Colorado State Rams
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Pascarelli * | 34 | 8-17 | 6-13 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 8 | -1.3 |
| Jevin Muniz * | 28 | 1-6 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 13 | -2.3 |
| Brandon Rechsteiner * | 26 | 5-11 | 3-9 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 7 | +16.1 |
| Carey Booth * | 25 | 4-6 | 1-1 | 6-7 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 17 | -4.8 |
| Kyle Jorgensen * | 11 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 5 | +2.4 |
| Jase Butler | 20 | 4-7 | 2-4 | 3-3 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 15 | +8.0 |
| Augustinas Kiudulas | 18 | 2-4 | 1-1 | 6-6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 16 | -5.0 |
| Jojo McIver | 18 | 1-4 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 9 | +0.0 |
| Nikola Djapa | 17 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | +8.8 |
| Darnez Slater | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -5.0 |
| Jon Mekonnen | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -1.9 |
* = starter