Model Predictions
| Model | Cal Poly Mustangs | UC San Diego Tritons | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 25.9% | 74.1% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 23.5% | 76.5% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 18.0% | 82.0% | +8.4 | ✓ (5.4 off) |
| Pythagorean | 32.9% | 67.1% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 13.3% | 86.7% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 19.0% | 81.0% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 19.0% | 81.0% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 30.8% | 69.2% | - | ✓ |
Actual: UC San Diego Tritons +3 (72-69). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Cal Poly Mustangs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hamad Mousa | 35 | 8-22 | 0-6 | 5-5 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 21 | 5 | -6.6 |
| Austin Goode | 34 | 2-5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 7 | -8.2 |
| Peter Bandelj | 33 | 3-12 | 1-9 | 0-2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 0 | +5.6 |
| Cayden Ward | 31 | 3-9 | 1-5 | 6-6 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 15 | -9.7 |
| Jake Davis | 20 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | +3.2 |
| Guzman Vasilic | 14 | 2-5 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 1 | +2.2 |
| Jackson Mosley | 12 | 3-6 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 4 | +9.1 |
| Ali Assran | 11 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 8 | +5.2 |
| Troy Plumtree | 10 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | +10.0 |
UC San Diego Tritons
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leo Beath | 35 | 2-6 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 8 | +5.1 |
| Tom Beattie | 35 | 8-12 | 2-5 | 2-2 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 14 | +4.3 |
| Alex Chaikin | 33 | 2-8 | 2-8 | 2-2 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 7 | +7.0 |
| Hudson Mayes | 31 | 10-16 | 1-1 | 2-8 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 23 | 14 | -3.9 |
| Bol Dengdit | 26 | 3-8 | 0-1 | 5-5 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 7 | +7.7 |
| Jaden Vance | 20 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -4.7 |
| Emanuel Prospere II | 15 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 3-4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -13.4 |
| Aidan Burke | 5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -11.7 |
* = starter