Model Predictions
| Model | UC Santa Barbara Gauchos | Cal Poly Mustangs | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 46.0% | 54.0% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 59.6% | 40.4% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 63.5% | 36.5% | -3.0 | ✗ (13.0 off) |
| Pythagorean | 59.5% | 40.5% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 97.0% | 3.0% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 70.4% | 29.6% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 70.5% | 29.5% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 55.2% | 44.8% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Cal Poly Mustangs +10 (89-79). Predictions use season-end ratings.
UC Santa Barbara Gauchos
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Shaw | 36 | 4-14 | 2-6 | 3-3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 3 | - |
| Z. Sensley | 35 | 8-16 | 4-10 | 1-1 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 14 | - |
| C. Smith | 34 | 4-9 | 3-7 | 6-8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 15 | - |
| A. Mahaney | 33 | 8-13 | 3-8 | 2-3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 10 | - |
| M. McGhee IV | 25 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 9 | - |
| H. Kitenge | 22 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | - |
| L. Zuffelato | 6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| M. Simcoe | 5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| K. Keat Tong | 2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Z. Clark | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
Cal Poly Mustangs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Bandelj | 35 | 5-11 | 2-6 | 6-6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 14 | - |
| C. Ward | 33 | 4-10 | 1-5 | 5-6 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 14 | - |
| H. Mousa | 32 | 6-10 | 1-3 | 4-5 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 16 | - |
| G. Vasilic | 28 | 4-5 | 2-3 | 1-3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 8 | - |
| A. Goode | 23 | 2-4 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | - |
| J. Mosley | 14 | 2-5 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | - |
| T. Plumtree | 13 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | - |
| Jess Esso Essis | 11 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 3-3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 | - |
| A. Assran | 9 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 | - |
| J. Davis | 2 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | - |
* = starter