Model Predictions
| Model | UC Santa Barbara Gauchos | Cal Poly Mustangs | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 49.1% | 50.9% | -1.4 | ✓ (11.4 off) |
| Bradley-Terry | 54.2% | 45.8% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 62.7% | 37.3% | -2.9 | ✗ (12.9 off) |
| Pythagorean | 59.5% | 40.5% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 77.7% | 22.3% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 70.5% | 29.5% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 70.5% | 29.5% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 54.7% | 45.3% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Cal Poly Mustangs +10 (89-79). Ratings: 2025-26 season-end ratings.
UC Santa Barbara Gauchos
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CJ Shaw * | 36 | 4-14 | 2-6 | 3-3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 3 | -10.4 |
| Zion Sensley * | 35 | 8-16 | 4-10 | 1-1 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 14 | -2.8 |
| Colin Smith * | 34 | 4-9 | 3-7 | 6-8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 15 | -0.6 |
| Aidan Mahaney * | 33 | 8-13 | 3-8 | 2-3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 10 | -15.7 |
| Hosana Kitenge * | 22 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -8.9 |
| Marvin McGhee IV | 25 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 9 | -8.2 |
| Luke Zuffelato | 6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -7.7 |
| Michael Simcoe | 5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -6.3 |
| Koat Keat Tong | 2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | +3.9 |
| ZZ Clark | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2.8 |
Cal Poly Mustangs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peter Bandelj * | 35 | 5-11 | 2-6 | 6-6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 14 | +13.3 |
| Cayden Ward * | 33 | 4-10 | 1-5 | 5-6 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 14 | +7.1 |
| Hamad Mousa * | 32 | 6-10 | 1-3 | 4-5 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 16 | +12.6 |
| Guzman Vasilic * | 28 | 4-5 | 2-3 | 1-3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 8 | +18.8 |
| Austin Goode * | 23 | 2-4 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | +3.3 |
| Jackson Mosley | 14 | 2-5 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | -2.1 |
| Troy Plumtree | 13 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | +3.9 |
| Jess Esso Essis | 11 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 3-3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 | -0.3 |
| Ali Assran | 9 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 | +0.1 |
| Jake Davis | 2 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | +3.9 |
* = starter