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NC State Wolfpack

Season: 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017
Also known as: NC State Wolfpack
Program History
Coach: Kevin Keatts

2026 Team Stats (31 games)

83.7
PPG
77.6
Opp
+6.1
Margin
46.7%
FG%
39.1%
3P%
77.4%
FT%
34.1
RPG
15.1
APG
9.1
TO
79.4
Pace
87.8
AdjO
71.1
AdjD
#32
Rank

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 1047 (#143) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1206 (#48) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +109 elo More → 977 (#556) HCA +109 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.2 More → +16.6 (#33) HCA +2.2
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.5 More → +23.6 (#63) HCA +2.5
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.731 (#54) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff +5.6 More → 0.643 (#132) NetEff +5.6
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +21.8 More → 0.925 (#34) AdjNet +21.8
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +22.0 More → 0.928 (#34) AdjNet +22.0
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 87.8 | AdjD 71.1 More → 0.821 (#32) AdjO 87.8 | AdjD 71.1
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 80.5 | AdjD 75.5 More → 0.612 (#103) AdjO 80.5 | AdjD 75.5
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.899 (#53) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.857 (#58) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 118 | GP 31 More → 1167 (#81) RD 118 | GP 31

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-03 vs North Carolina Central Eagles W 114 - 66
2025-11-07 vs UAB Blazers W 94 - 70
2025-11-12 vs UNC Greensboro Spartans W 110 - 64
2025-11-17 vs VCU Rams W 85 - 79
2025-11-24 vs Seton Hall Pirates L 74 - 85
2025-11-25 @ Boise State Broncos W 81 - 70
2025-11-26 @ Texas Longhorns L 97 - 102
2025-12-03 @ Auburn Tigers L 73 - 83
2025-12-13 vs Kansas Jayhawks L 76 - 77
2025-12-17 vs Texas Southern Tigers W 108 - 72
2025-12-21 vs Ole Miss Rebels W 76 - 62
2025-12-31 vs Wake Forest Demon Deacons W 70 - 57
2026-01-03 vs Virginia Cavaliers L 61 - 76
2026-01-06 @ Boston College Eagles W 79 - 71
2026-01-10 @ Florida State Seminoles W 113 - 69
2026-01-20 @ Clemson Tigers W 80 - 76
2026-01-24 @ Pittsburgh Panthers W 81 - 72
2026-01-27 vs Syracuse Orange W 88 - 68
2026-01-31 @ Wake Forest Demon Deacons W 96 - 78
2026-02-03 @ SMU Mustangs W 84 - 83
2026-02-07 vs Virginia Tech Hokies W 82 - 73
2026-02-09 @ Louisville Cardinals L 77 - 118
2026-02-14 vs Miami Hurricanes L 76 - 77
2026-02-17 vs North Carolina Tar Heels W 82 - 58
2026-02-24 @ Virginia Cavaliers L 61 - 90
2026-02-28 @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish L 90 - 96
2026-03-02 vs Duke Blue Devils L 64 - 93
2026-03-07 vs Stanford Cardinal L 84 - 85
2026-03-11 vs Pittsburgh Panthers W 98 - 88
2026-03-12 @ Virginia Cavaliers L 74 - 81
2026-03-17 vs Texas Longhorns L 66 - 68

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Dar. Williams Dar. Williams - 30 30.5 14.6 4.5 2.6 1.0 0.3 1.5 12.5 8.9 9 0.8 8.3 41.9 41.8 75.8 0.05 54.3 52.0
P. McNeil P. McNeil G 31 29.4 14.5 3.6 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.4 9.6 10.0 - - - 44.3 43.8 82.7 - 65.3 60.9
Q. Copeland Q. Copeland G 31 29.2 14.0 3.5 6.5 1.7 0.2 2.9 9.1 13.9 -3 -0.3 -1.7 50.0 39.1 78.8 0.32 60.8 53.2
V. Lubin V. Lubin - 31 28.3 13.4 7.0 0.8 0.5 0.8 0.8 7.6 14.1 76 3.5 12.5 66.5 30.0 76.2 0.08 70.9 67.2
T. Holloman T. Holloman G 29 25.7 9.3 2.0 2.1 0.9 0.2 1.2 6.8 6.6 -3 -0.3 -1.8 42.1 40.2 82.6 0.06 59.4 54.1
Matt Able Matt Able - 31 22.0 8.7 3.4 0.9 1.3 0.3 0.9 7.5 6.2 124 5.6 19.9 40.3 34.4 78.7 0.89 53.0 49.8
J. Deng J. Deng F 6 13.7 7.3 2.3 0.3 0.7 0.2 0.5 6.3 4.0 -15 -15.0 -34.1 36.8 33.3 85.7 0.04 53.6 50.0
A. Breed A. Breed G 18 13.9 4.4 1.9 1.1 0.7 0.0 0.4 3.5 4.2 46 2.7 13.4 39.7 33.3 91.7 0.3 54.4 46.0
T. Arceneaux T. Arceneaux G 27 15.8 3.8 2.6 0.5 0.9 0.4 0.4 3.4 4.4 0 0.0 0.0 41.3 30.0 77.8 0.41 51.0 47.8
Musa Sagnia Musa Sagnia - 31 12.4 2.2 2.9 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.5 1.7 4.4 -30 -3.3 -39.2 57.7 25.0 40.0 0.35 56.7 58.7
S. Ebube S. Ebube - 16 3.9 1.2 0.8 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.5 1.9 -7 -1.8 -52.5 100.0 0 25.0 0.03 71.5 100.0
J. Snell J. Snell G 7 2.1 0.4 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 -0.1 2 0.3 3.2 14.3 16.7 0 0.03 21.4 21.4
C. Langdon C. Langdon - 5 2.8 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 -0.4 -9 -1.5 -10.9 0.0 0.0 100.0 -0.01 20.5 0.0
Zymicah Wilkins Zymicah Wilkins F 0 - 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Jayme Kontuniemi Jayme Kontuniemi G 0 - 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG