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2026-02-17

Model Predictions

Model North Carolina Tar Heels NC State Wolfpack Spread Result
Elo 65.8% 34.2% -
Bradley-Terry 53.9% 46.1% -
Margin 43.8% 56.2% +1.4 (22.6 off)
Pythagorean 48.4% 51.6% -
Efficiency 95.1% 4.9% -
Adjusted Efficiency 54.6% 45.4% -
Log Adjusted 54.8% 45.2% -
Points Off/Def 45.9% 54.1% -

Actual: NC State Wolfpack +24 (82-58). Predictions use season-end ratings.

North Carolina Tar Heels

Player MIN FG 3PT FT REB AST STL BLK TO PTS Numbers RAPM GS
J. Stevenson 35 4-7 0-3 5-5 9 1 0 1 0 13 17 -
Z. High 30 4-6 0-1 5-8 10 1 0 2 4 13 16 -
S. Trimble 27 1-9 0-3 2-4 3 1 0 0 1 4 -2 -
L. Bogavac 27 3-8 2-5 1-2 3 0 0 0 3 9 1 -
J. Powell 27 3-8 1-4 2-2 5 0 0 0 1 9 5 -
D. Dixon 21 2-12 1-9 0-0 3 2 0 0 2 5 -4 -
J. Young 16 2-6 1-5 0-0 2 1 0 0 0 5 2 -
Kyan. Evans 15 0-2 0-2 0-0 1 3 0 0 1 0 1 -
I. Denis 2 0-2 0-1 0-0 1 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -

NC State Wolfpack

Player MIN FG 3PT FT REB AST STL BLK TO PTS Numbers RAPM GS
Q. Copeland 32 7-16 0-0 6-8 6 7 4 0 0 20 21 -
M. Able 31 6-10 5-7 2-2 6 0 1 0 1 19 15 -
P. McNeil 31 4-6 2-4 0-0 7 0 0 0 0 10 11 -
V. Lubin 28 5-6 0-0 2-4 6 2 1 0 1 12 14 -
T. Arceneaux 23 1-6 1-3 0-0 6 0 0 1 1 3 3 -
T. Holloman 17 1-5 0-2 0-0 2 2 0 0 0 2 1 -
Dar. Williams 16 6-10 1-2 0-0 1 1 0 0 0 13 5 -
M. Sagnia 13 1-3 0-0 1-2 2 0 1 2 1 3 4 -
A. Breed 7 0-0 0-0 0-0 1 1 0 0 0 0 2 -
J. Snell 2 0-2 0-2 0-0 1 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -

* = starter