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2025-11-17

Model Predictions

Model VCU Rams NC State Wolfpack Spread Result
Elo 81.3% 18.7% -
Bradley-Terry 52.1% 47.9% -
Margin 26.0% 74.0% +5.7 (0.3 off)
Pythagorean 49.2% 50.8% -
Efficiency 82.7% 17.3% -
Adjusted Efficiency 30.4% 69.6% -
Log Adjusted 29.8% 70.2% -
Points Off/Def 35.8% 64.2% -

Actual: NC State Wolfpack +6 (85-79). Predictions use season-end ratings.

VCU Rams

Player MIN FG 3PT FT REB AST STL BLK TO PTS Numbers RAPM GS
B. Evans * 34 6-12 3-7 3-4 5 3 1 1 1 18 15 -10.7
L. Djokovic * 32 5-7 0-2 3-5 5 0 2 0 2 13 11 -9.8
N. Lewis * 29 3-10 2-8 0-0 2 3 3 0 2 8 4 -8.0
J. Tracey * 29 5-12 4-9 2-3 4 7 2 0 2 16 15 -0.8
B. Jennings * 21 2-6 0-2 2-2 4 1 2 0 0 6 7 -6.5
T. Ward 26 3-10 1-6 2-4 5 2 1 1 1 9 7 -15.3
T. Hill Jr. 15 3-7 3-7 0-0 1 0 0 0 3 9 0 -0.5
C. Fermin 8 0-0 0-0 0-0 1 0 0 1 0 0 2 -
M. Belle 4 0-1 0-0 0-0 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 -1.1
A. Nowell 2 0-1 0-1 0-0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 -

NC State Wolfpack

Player MIN FG 3PT FT REB AST STL BLK TO PTS Numbers RAPM GS
T. Holloman * 34 6-12 3-6 10-10 4 1 0 0 5 25 13 +13.1
Dar. Williams * 33 9-15 2-4 8-9 7 2 1 0 3 28 20 +11.3
P. McNeil * 28 0-4 0-4 0-0 9 3 1 1 1 0 9 +11.5
Q. Copeland * 23 2-6 0-0 3-6 5 4 2 0 3 7 9 -3.7
V. Lubin * 22 4-8 1-2 2-2 9 0 0 1 3 11 10 -
M. Sagnia 27 1-3 0-1 0-2 6 0 1 1 2 2 5 +11.1
M. Able 17 3-4 2-3 4-4 3 1 0 0 0 12 12 +8.1
J. Deng 8 0-1 0-1 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -0.8
A. Breed 8 0-1 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 +0.3

* = starter