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Murray State

Season: 2027 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018
Also known as: Murray State Racers, Murray State
Program History
Coach: Ryan Miller

2026 Team Stats (33 games)

83.1
PPG
80.2
Opp
+2.9
Margin
46.0%
FG%
35.0%
3P%
75.5%
FT%
36.3
RPG
13.7
APG
11.8
TO
71.3
Est. poss./game
82.5
Adj PPG
78.8
Adj Opp PPG
#108
Scoring Rank

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 972 (#176) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1089 (#93) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +75 elo More → 976 (#215) HCA +75 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.3 More → +4.0 (#113) HCA +2.3
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.2 More → -1.0 (#189) HCA +2.2
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.600 (#113) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff +4.0 More → 0.600 (#113) NetEff +4.0
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +5.2 More → 0.645 (#118) AdjNet +5.2
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +5.3 More → 0.648 (#116) AdjNet +5.3
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 82.5 | AdjD 78.8 More → 0.585 (#108) AdjO 82.5 | AdjD 78.8
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 78.0 | AdjD 80.1 More → 0.452 (#230) AdjO 78.0 | AdjD 80.1
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.535 (#150) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.508 (#168) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 125 | GP 33 More → 1020 (#162) RD 125 | GP 33

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-03 vs Omaha Mavericks W 85 - 77
2025-11-07 vs Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils W 108 - 60
2025-11-11 @ SMU Mustangs L 91 - 102
2025-11-15 vs Nicholls Colonels W 99 - 79
2025-11-18 vs Little Rock Trojans W 89 - 68
2025-11-23 @ Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders L 87 - 90
2025-11-24 @ McNeese Cowboys L 60 - 73
2025-11-25 @ George Washington Revolutionaries W 96 - 95
2025-12-02 vs Morehead State Eagles W 84 - 52
2025-12-06 vs Bellarmine Knights W 81 - 68
2025-12-13 @ Akron Zips W 115 - 100
2025-12-18 vs Drake Bulldogs W 81 - 72
2025-12-21 @ Valparaiso Beacons W 85 - 79
2025-12-29 vs Southern Illinois Salukis W 84 - 81
2026-01-01 @ UIC Flames W 81 - 77
2026-01-04 vs Bradley Braves W 86 - 66
2026-01-07 @ Evansville Purple Aces W 79 - 69
2026-01-10 vs Valparaiso Beacons W 92 - 79
2026-01-17 vs Indiana State Sycamores W 85 - 81
2026-01-21 @ Drake Bulldogs L 90 - 101
2026-01-24 @ Northern Iowa Panthers L 76 - 81
2026-01-28 vs Illinois State Redbirds L 65 - 70
2026-01-31 @ Belmont Bruins L 86 - 103
2026-02-03 vs UIC Flames W 81 - 74
2026-02-06 @ Southern Illinois Salukis W 91 - 81
2026-02-09 vs Northern Iowa Panthers L 60 - 89
2026-02-12 @ Indiana State Sycamores W 74 - 72
2026-02-15 vs Belmont Bruins L 70 - 87
2026-02-18 @ Illinois State Redbirds L 61 - 78
2026-02-21 vs Evansville Purple Aces W 88 - 75
2026-03-01 @ Bradley Braves L 78 - 87
2026-03-06 vs UIC Flames L 79 - 92
2026-03-18 @ Nevada Wolf Pack L 75 - 89

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

Each player's share of the team's minutes per game (season minutes over the roster's), placed by position, so every column is one game's minutes. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM GP PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Javon Jackson Javon Jackson G 33 25.6 16.5 2.3 2.9 1.2 0.1 2.4 13.1 7.3 -24 25 -1.0 -1.5 42.8 36.9 85.5 0.7 55.1 49.2
Roman Domon Roman Domon G 33 25.3 14.2 5.2 1.6 1.1 0.1 1.7 8.2 12.3 14 25 0.6 0.9 47.6 36.8 76.8 2.33 63.8 55.4
Fredrick King Fredrick King C 32 24.7 13.1 8.4 0.8 0.7 2.1 1.9 7.9 15.3 8 25 0.3 0.5 64.8 54.5 61.4 0.75 66.8 66.0
Layne Taylor Layne Taylor G 31 24.7 8.0 2.7 3.2 0.7 0.0 1.0 6.6 7.0 9 23 0.4 0.6 40.8 34.5 78.9 0.46 55.5 52.7
JJ Traynor JJ Traynor F 32 22.6 7.4 3.5 0.7 0.4 0.8 1.2 6.1 5.6 -96 25 -3.8 -7.1 48.2 29.3 69.2 -3.24 55.9 53.8
Kj Tenner Kj Tenner G 33 16.5 6.0 1.5 2.1 0.6 0.0 0.8 4.4 4.9 -54 25 -2.2 -5.2 45.9 42.6 74.1 -2.08 57.4 52.7
Mason Miller Mason Miller F 32 22.8 5.9 3.8 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.5 4.5 5.8 18 24 0.8 1.4 39.2 39.2 78.4 1.68 59.0 55.6
Brayden Shorter Brayden Shorter G 33 14.6 5.7 1.8 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.5 5.3 2.5 -34 25 -1.4 -3.9 33.9 28.4 90.0 -1.93 50.5 46.6
Mathis Courbon Mathis Courbon G 32 15.8 4.6 2.0 1.2 0.4 0.2 0.8 3.2 4.4 -16 25 -0.6 -1.6 44.1 40.8 79.2 0.35 60.1 53.9
Brock Vice Brock Vice F 30 5.4 2.0 1.8 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 1.2 2.9 4 22 0.2 1.3 61.1 36.4 68.8 0.41 68.5 66.7
Dylan Anderson Dylan Anderson F 31 6.8 1.5 1.7 0.4 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.5 2.0 -34 23 -1.5 -10.5 37.0 20.0 60.0 -3.22 44.6 42.4
Dillon Butler Dillon Butler G 0 - 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Lachlan Crate Lachlan Crate G 0 - 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Tristian Ford Tristian Ford G 0 - 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
B. Shtolzberg B. Shtolzberg G 0 - 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG

2025-2026 Shot Zones

2005 located field-goal attempts in 33 games (ESPN). Each zone is coloured by the player with the largest share of the team's made-shot points there (left) and of its misses there (right).

King33% Jackson26% Jackson28% Jackson33% Jackson29% Miller27% Miller24% Jackson22% Jackson19% Shorter21%
Points: who the team's points here most likely come from
Jackson30% Jackson31% Jackson40% Jackson38% Traynor26% Shorter27% Shorter33% Domon20% Jackson20% Shorter20%
Misses: who misses most here

Javon JacksonFredrick KingRoman DomonJJ TraynorBrayden ShorterMason Miller

Zone FGM-FGA FG% Pts Top scorer Runner-up Most misses Runner-up
Restricted area 314-445 70.6 628 Fredrick King 33% (210 pts) Javon Jackson 16% (100 pts) Javon Jackson 30% (39 misses) Fredrick King 22% (29 misses)
Paint (non-RA) 238-513 46.4 476 Javon Jackson 26% (122 pts) Fredrick King 22% (104 pts) Javon Jackson 31% (86 misses) Fredrick King 19% (53 misses)
Mid-range left 25-65 38.5 50 Javon Jackson 28% (14 pts) Roman Domon 28% (14 pts) Javon Jackson 40% (16 misses) Roman Domon 22% (9 misses)
Mid-range center 6-22 27.3 12 Javon Jackson 33% (4 pts) Roman Domon 33% (4 pts) Javon Jackson 38% (6 misses) Roman Domon 19% (3 misses)
Mid-range right 34-72 47.2 68 Javon Jackson 29% (20 pts) Roman Domon 29% (20 pts) JJ Traynor 26% (10 misses) Roman Domon 24% (9 misses)
Left corner 3 33-85 38.8 99 Mason Miller 27% (27 pts) Brayden Shorter 15% (15 pts) Brayden Shorter 27% (14 misses) JJ Traynor 17% (9 misses)
Right corner 3 25-58 43.1 75 Mason Miller 24% (18 pts) Mathis Courbon 16% (12 pts) Brayden Shorter 33% (11 misses) JJ Traynor 15% (5 misses)
Above-break 3 left 104-301 34.6 312 Javon Jackson 22% (69 pts) Roman Domon 17% (54 pts) Roman Domon 20% (40 misses) Layne Taylor 20% (39 misses)
Above-break 3 center 57-181 31.5 171 Javon Jackson 19% (33 pts) Layne Taylor 18% (30 pts) Javon Jackson 20% (25 misses) Layne Taylor 18% (22 misses)
Above-break 3 right 86-263 32.7 258 Brayden Shorter 21% (54 pts) Layne Taylor 17% (45 pts) Brayden Shorter 20% (36 misses) Javon Jackson 18% (32 misses)