Model Predictions
| Model | Valparaiso Beacons | Murray State Racers | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 58.8% | 41.2% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 32.7% | 67.3% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 24.7% | 75.3% | +6.1 | ✓ (6.9 off) |
| Pythagorean | 41.1% | 58.9% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 29.1% | 70.9% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 32.8% | 67.2% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 32.6% | 67.4% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 35.1% | 64.9% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Murray State Racers +13 (92-79). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Valparaiso Beacons
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JT Pettigrew | 35 | 5-15 | 0-4 | 5-6 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 5 | -6.3 |
| Shon Tupuola | 33 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 20 | -11.0 |
| Brody Whitaker | 32 | 7-11 | 4-4 | 1-1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 11 | +6.9 |
| Rakim Chaney | 27 | 3-11 | 2-5 | 2-2 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 10 | 3 | -2.2 |
| Owen Dease | 24 | 3-6 | 1-1 | 3-5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 5 | +4.7 |
| Justus McNair | 21 | 5-10 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 7 | -12.9 |
| Mark Brown | 10 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -7.6 |
| Carter Hopoi | 9 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1.9 |
| Isaiah Barnes | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -11.5 |
| Kyonte Thomas | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0.6 |
| Tucker Tornatta | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1.5 |
Murray State Racers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Miller | 26 | 0-3 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +0.6 |
| Fredrick King | 25 | 5-10 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 13 | +1.8 |
| Javon Jackson | 24 | 6-12 | 2-5 | 7-8 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 21 | 13 | +7.9 |
| Roman Domon | 24 | 6-8 | 3-4 | 3-4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 14 | +6.5 |
| Layne Taylor | 23 | 3-9 | 2-7 | 1-2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 4 | -6.5 |
| Mathis Courbon | 18 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 12 | +8.0 |
| JJ Traynor | 16 | 1-4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +2.8 |
| KJ Tenner | 15 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | +6.9 |
| Brayden Shorter | 15 | 5-10 | 5-10 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 9 | +8.1 |
| Brock Vice | 8 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | +2.7 |
| Dylan Anderson | 6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | +4.1 |
* = starter