Model Predictions
| Model | Belmont Bruins | Murray State Racers | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 66.4% | 33.6% | -6.9 | ✓ (10.1 off) |
| Bradley-Terry | 61.3% | 38.7% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 63.1% | 36.9% | -2.9 | ✓ (14.1 off) |
| Pythagorean | 54.0% | 46.0% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 77.1% | 22.9% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 70.9% | 29.1% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 70.9% | 29.1% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 54.8% | 45.2% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Murray State Racers -17 (70-87). Ratings: 2025-26 season-end ratings.
Belmont Bruins
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Lundblade * | 36 | 4-9 | 4-7 | 0-1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 10 | +19.2 |
| Sam Orme * | 26 | 7-11 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 14 | +17.5 |
| Isaiah West * | 21 | 2-5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -7.3 |
| Jabez Jenkins * | 17 | 0-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1.6 |
| Drew Scharnowski * | 12 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 5 | +0.2 |
| Eoin Dillon | 26 | 4-6 | 3-4 | 8-8 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 20 | +14.3 |
| Jack Smiley | 22 | 7-10 | 2-4 | 5-5 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 18 | +23.3 |
| Brigham Rogers | 19 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -4.7 |
| Aidan Noyes | 17 | 2-5 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | -9.3 |
| Graydon Lemke | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2.0 |
| Jake Dykstra | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2.0 |
| Keith Robbins | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2.0 |
| Cooper Haynes | 1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -2.0 |
Murray State Racers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javon Jackson * | 32 | 7-17 | 1-5 | 5-6 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 10 | -11.6 |
| Roman Domon * | 29 | 1-11 | 1-7 | 5-8 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 5 | -3.8 |
| JJ Traynor * | 27 | 3-7 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 3 | -13.1 |
| Fredrick King * | 19 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -6.4 |
| Layne Taylor * | 17 | 2-5 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 2 | -13.3 |
| KJ Tenner | 23 | 7-10 | 5-7 | 2-4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 21 | 12 | +3.8 |
| Mason Miller | 23 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 | +3.2 |
| Dylan Anderson | 10 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | +2.4 |
| Mathis Courbon | 10 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0.0 |
| Brayden Shorter | 7 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -2.7 |
| Brock Vice | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0.5 |
* = starter