Model Predictions
| Model | Murray State Racers | Illinois State Redbirds | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 15.3% | 84.7% | +11.4 | ✓ (5.6 off) |
| Bradley-Terry | 39.2% | 60.8% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 27.4% | 72.6% | +5.4 | ✓ (11.6 off) |
| Pythagorean | 43.4% | 56.6% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 34.2% | 65.8% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 29.8% | 70.2% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 29.6% | 70.4% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 36.9% | 63.1% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Illinois State Redbirds +17 (78-61). Ratings: 2025-26 season-end ratings.
Murray State Racers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roman Domon * | 35 | 5-13 | 2-4 | 6-8 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 8 | -9.9 |
| Javon Jackson * | 32 | 3-11 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -1 | -19.7 |
| JJ Traynor * | 25 | 1-6 | 0-4 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -2 | -17.9 |
| Fredrick King * | 23 | 7-8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 13 | -11.1 |
| Layne Taylor * | 22 | 2-5 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | -9.8 |
| KJ Tenner | 19 | 2-5 | 1-2 | 1-4 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 5 | -8.6 |
| Mason Miller | 15 | 1-5 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -5.8 |
| Brayden Shorter | 13 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | -6.5 |
| Mathis Courbon | 10 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +0.1 |
| Brock Vice | 4 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | +3.8 |
| Dylan Anderson | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | -2.0 |
Illinois State Redbirds
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnny Kinziger * | 28 | 2-6 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 3 | +11.5 |
| Boden Skunberg * | 27 | 2-5 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 4 | +15.8 |
| Landon Wolf * | 25 | 5-6 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 11 | +15.6 |
| Mason Klabo * | 22 | 2-5 | 0-1 | 3-4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5 | +3.5 |
| Brandon Lieb * | 16 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | +1.6 |
| Ty'Reek Coleman | 27 | 10-16 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 22 | 17 | +19.8 |
| Ty Pence | 24 | 6-8 | 3-4 | 0-1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 13 | +15.7 |
| Landon Moore | 17 | 3-6 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4 | +4.3 |
| Jack Daugherty | 13 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +4.0 |
| Ty Blake | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3.8 |
* = starter