Model Predictions
| Model | Murray State Racers | Valparaiso Beacons | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 21.8% | 78.2% | +8.1 | ✗ (14.1 off) |
| Bradley-Terry | 53.6% | 46.4% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 56.9% | 43.1% | -1.5 | ✓ (4.5 off) |
| Pythagorean | 52.9% | 47.1% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 64.9% | 35.1% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 61.2% | 38.8% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 61.4% | 38.6% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 51.7% | 48.3% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Valparaiso Beacons -6 (79-85). Ratings: 2025-26 season-end ratings.
Murray State Racers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fredrick King * | 31 | 8-13 | 0-0 | 3-3 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 13 | +8.7 |
| Mason Miller * | 24 | 2-5 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 4 | -3.9 |
| Layne Taylor * | 21 | 4-8 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 4 | +5.7 |
| JJ Traynor * | 19 | 2-4 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 | -4.6 |
| Javon Jackson * | 17 | 5-10 | 2-3 | 6-7 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 13 | +3.9 |
| Roman Domon | 24 | 4-5 | 1-2 | 11-14 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 18 | +7.1 |
| Mathis Courbon | 23 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -3.5 |
| KJ Tenner | 19 | 2-5 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | -7.2 |
| Brayden Shorter | 16 | 1-5 | 0-4 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | +3.6 |
| Dylan Anderson | 5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -9.0 |
| Brock Vice | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | -3.0 |
Valparaiso Beacons
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rakim Chaney * | 33 | 5-12 | 2-6 | 1-2 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 11 | +1.4 |
| Shon Tupuola * | 32 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 10 | -6.0 |
| Brody Whitaker * | 20 | 3-7 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 3 | -1.0 |
| JT Pettigrew * | 19 | 0-7 | 0-1 | 3-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | +7.7 |
| Isaiah Barnes * | 12 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3.6 |
| Owen Dease | 28 | 10-13 | 3-4 | 2-2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 25 | 18 | +5.6 |
| Carter Hopoi | 21 | 2-5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -5.1 |
| Justus McNair | 20 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 3 | +0.7 |
| Tucker Tornatta | 8 | 2-4 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 3 | +0.7 |
| Kyonte Thomas | 7 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -2.8 |
* = starter