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San Diego State

Also known as: San Diego State Aztecs, San Diego State
Program History

2013 Team Stats (18 games)

70.1
PPG
61.3
Opp
+8.7
Margin
43.6%
FG%
32.8%
3P%
70.2%
FT%
36.6
RPG
12.6
APG
11.2
TO
-
Est. poss./game
69.6
Adj PPG
57.8
Adj Opp PPG
#34
Scoring Rank

Model Outputs

2012-2013
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More โ†’ 1220 (#67) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More โ†’ 1228 (#40) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +102 elo More โ†’ 1046 (#103) HCA +102 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +3.1 More โ†’ +12.7 (#34) HCA +3.1
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.2 More โ†’ +9.3 (#57) HCA +3.2
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More โ†’ 0.768 (#51) -
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +19.5 More โ†’ 0.904 (#39) AdjNet +19.5
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +19.6 More โ†’ 0.906 (#40) AdjNet +19.6
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 69.6 | AdjD 57.8 More โ†’ 0.745 (#34) AdjO 69.6 | AdjD 57.8
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 66.8 | AdjD 60.9 More โ†’ 0.631 (#58) AdjO 66.8 | AdjD 60.9
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More โ†’ 0.761 (#52) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More โ†’ 0.741 (#56) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 104 | GP 33 More โ†’ 1207 (#49) RD 104 | GP 33

2013 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2012-11-11 vs Syracuse Orange L 49 - 62
2012-11-13 vs San Diego Christian Hawks W 91 - 57
2012-11-17 @ Missouri State Bears W 60 - 44
2012-11-21 vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions W 79 - 43
2012-11-25 @ USC Trojans W 66 - 60
2012-12-01 @ UCLA Bruins W 78 - 69
2012-12-03 vs Texas Southern Tigers W 74 - 62
2012-12-06 vs UC Santa Barbara Gauchos W 84 - 70
2012-12-15 vs San Diego Toreros W 72 - 56
2012-12-18 vs Point Loma Sea Lions W 76 - 49
2012-12-22 @ San Francisco Dons W 80 - 58
2012-12-23 vs Indiana State Sycamores W 62 - 55
2012-12-25 @ Arizona Wildcats L 67 - 68
2013-01-02 vs Cal State Bakersfield Roadrunners W 72 - 57
2013-01-09 @ Fresno State Bulldogs W 65 - 62
2013-01-12 vs Colorado State Rams W 79 - 72
2013-01-16 vs UNLV Rebels L 75 - 82
2013-01-19 @ Wyoming Cowboys L 45 - 58
2013-01-23 @ Nevada Wolf Pack W 78 - 57
2013-01-26 vs New Mexico Lobos W 55 - 34
2013-02-02 @ Air Force Falcons L 67 - 70
2013-02-06 vs Boise State Broncos W 63 - 62
2013-02-09 vs Fresno State Bulldogs W 75 - 53
2013-02-13 @ Colorado State Rams L 60 - 66
2013-02-16 @ UNLV Rebels L 70 - 72
2013-02-19 vs Wyoming Cowboys W 79 - 51
2013-02-23 vs Nevada Wolf Pack W 88 - 75
2013-02-27 @ New Mexico Lobos L 60 - 70
2013-03-06 vs Air Force Falcons W 58 - 51
2013-03-09 @ Boise State Broncos L 65 - 69
2013-03-13 vs Boise State Broncos W 73 - 67
2013-03-15 @ New Mexico Lobos L 50 - 60
2013-03-22 vs Oklahoma Sooners W 70 - 55
2013-03-24 vs Florida Gulf Coast Eagles L 71 - 81

2013 Roster

Minutes by Position

Each player's share of the team's minutes per game (season minutes over the roster's), placed by position, so every column is one game's minutes. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM GP PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Jamaal Franklin Jamaal Franklin G 33 33.1 17.0 9.5 3.3 1.6 0.8 3.4 7.9 20.8 173 29 6.0 7.4 41.5 34.1 83.0 3.29 86.9 47.3
Chase Tapley Chase Tapley G 33 30.8 13.5 3.2 2.7 1.4 0.5 1.3 6.3 13.8 154 29 5.3 7.1 44.0 39.0 89.3 1.12 101.0 53.8
Xavier Thames Xavier Thames G 30 28.7 9.5 2.7 2.4 1.0 0.3 1.8 4.5 9.7 66 25 2.6 3.8 32.8 35.5 79.2 -1.47 90.9 41.0
J.J. O'Brien J.J. O'Brien F 34 27.0 7.2 4.5 1.5 0.9 0.4 1.4 3.5 9.6 151 29 5.2 7.9 55.0 0.0 47.6 4.6 95.2 55.0
James Rahon James Rahon G 32 22.8 7.0 1.8 0.6 0.6 0.1 0.5 4.9 4.7 95 27 3.5 6.6 38.2 28.6 68.8 1.34 68.6 45.9
Deshawn Stephens Deshawn Stephens F 34 21.7 6.1 5.1 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.8 2.8 8.9 105 29 3.6 6.7 60.0 0 53.2 0.38 89.0 60.0
Winston Shepard Winston Shepard F 31 20.3 5.7 3.5 2.0 0.4 0.4 2.0 2.7 7.4 56 28 2.0 4.1 39.8 8.3 60.8 0.32 77.0 40.4
LaBradford Franklin LaBradford Franklin G 3 6.7 3.0 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.0 4.3 - - - - 100.0 100.0 66.7 0.79 104.2 116.7
D. Polee II D. Polee II F 25 9.8 2.9 2.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.6 1.6 3.2 5 19 0.3 1.3 51.3 46.2 73.1 -4.4 71.4 59.0
Skylar Spencer Skylar Spencer F 34 14.2 2.9 2.9 0.2 0.3 1.5 0.5 1.4 5.9 74 29 2.6 7.6 69.6 0 47.8 1.25 86.4 69.6
A. Douglas A. Douglas G 6 1.5 1.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.5 - - - - 75.0 66.7 0 -1.42 100.0 100.0
James Johnson James Johnson F 13 4.0 1.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.5 -4 10 -0.4 -5.1 40.0 0 60.0 -0.96 74.5 40.0
Jeremy Castleberry Jeremy Castleberry G 4 1.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.2 - - - - 50.0 0.0 0 -1.8 50.0 50.0
Narbeh Ebrahimian Narbeh Ebrahimian G 8 2.1 0.5 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.2 - - - - 33.3 0 50.0 -2.28 42.0 33.3
Ryan Staten Ryan Staten G 5 1.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 - - - - 20.0 0 0 -0.47 20.0 20.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG