San Diego State Aztecs

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Also known as: San Diego State Aztecs

Program History

Coach: Brian Dutcher

2013 Team Stats (18 games)

70.1

PPG

61.3

Opp

+8.7

Margin

43.6%

FG%

32.8%

3P%

70.2%

FT%

36.6

RPG

12.6

APG

11.2

Est. poss./game

69.6

Adj PPG

57.8

Adj Opp PPG

#34

Scoring Rank

Model Outputs

2012-2013

Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model	Output	Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More →	1220 (#67)	-
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More →	1228 (#40)	-
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +102 elo More →	1046 (#103)	HCA +102 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +3.1 More →	+12.7 (#34)	HCA +3.1
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.2 More →	+9.3 (#57)	HCA +3.2
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More →	0.768 (#51)	-
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +19.5 More →	0.904 (#39)	AdjNet +19.5
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +19.6 More →	0.906 (#40)	AdjNet +19.6
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 69.6 \| AdjD 57.8 More →	0.745 (#34)	AdjO 69.6 \| AdjD 57.8
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 66.8 \| AdjD 60.9 More →	0.631 (#58)	AdjO 66.8 \| AdjD 60.9
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More →	0.761 (#52)	Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More →	0.741 (#56)	Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 104 \| GP 33 More →	1207 (#49)	RD 104 \| GP 33

2013 Schedule & Results

Date	Vs/At	Opponent	Result	Score
2012-11-11	vs	Syracuse Orange	L	49 - 62
2012-11-13	vs	San Diego Christian Hawks	W	91 - 57
2012-11-17	@	Missouri State Bears	W	60 - 44
2012-11-21	vs	Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions	W	79 - 43
2012-11-25	@	USC Trojans	W	66 - 60
2012-12-01	@	UCLA Bruins	W	78 - 69
2012-12-03	vs	Texas Southern Tigers	W	74 - 62
2012-12-06	vs	UC Santa Barbara Gauchos	W	84 - 70
2012-12-15	vs	San Diego Toreros	W	72 - 56
2012-12-18	vs	Point Loma Sea Lions	W	76 - 49
2012-12-22	@	San Francisco Dons	W	80 - 58
2012-12-23	vs	Indiana State Sycamores	W	62 - 55
2012-12-25	@	Arizona Wildcats	L	67 - 68
2013-01-02	vs	Cal State Bakersfield Roadrunners	W	72 - 57
2013-01-09	@	Fresno State Bulldogs	W	65 - 62
2013-01-12	vs	Colorado State Rams	W	79 - 72
2013-01-16	vs	UNLV Rebels	L	75 - 82
2013-01-19	@	Wyoming Cowboys	L	45 - 58
2013-01-23	@	Nevada Wolf Pack	W	78 - 57
2013-01-26	vs	New Mexico Lobos	W	55 - 34
2013-02-02	@	Air Force Falcons	L	67 - 70
2013-02-06	vs	Boise State Broncos	W	63 - 62
2013-02-09	vs	Fresno State Bulldogs	W	75 - 53
2013-02-13	@	Colorado State Rams	L	60 - 66
2013-02-16	@	UNLV Rebels	L	70 - 72
2013-02-19	vs	Wyoming Cowboys	W	79 - 51
2013-02-23	vs	Nevada Wolf Pack	W	88 - 75
2013-02-27	@	New Mexico Lobos	L	60 - 70
2013-03-06	vs	Air Force Falcons	W	58 - 51
2013-03-09	@	Boise State Broncos	L	65 - 69
2013-03-13	vs	Boise State Broncos	W	73 - 67
2013-03-15	@	New Mexico Lobos	L	50 - 60
2013-03-22	vs	Oklahoma Sooners	W	70 - 55
2013-03-24	vs	Florida Gulf Coast Eagles	L	71 - 81

2013 Roster

Show Alumni If everyone stayed four years

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player	Pos	GP	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TO	FGA	Numbers	PM	PM GP	PM/G	PM/40	FG%	3P%	FT%	RAPM	TS%	eFG%
J. Franklin	G	33	33.1	17.0	9.5	3.3	1.6	0.8	3.4	7.9	20.8	173	29	6.0	7.4	41.5	34.1	83.0	3.29	86.9	47.3
C. Tapley	G	33	30.8	13.5	3.2	2.7	1.4	0.5	1.3	6.3	13.8	154	29	5.3	7.1	44.0	39.0	89.3	1.12	101.0	53.8
X. Thames	G	30	28.7	9.5	2.7	2.4	1.0	0.3	1.8	4.5	9.7	66	25	2.6	3.8	32.8	35.5	79.2	-1.47	90.9	41.0
J.J. O'Brien	F	34	27.0	7.2	4.5	1.5	0.9	0.4	1.4	3.5	9.6	151	29	5.2	7.9	55.0	0.0	47.6	4.6	95.2	55.0
J. Rahon	G	32	22.8	7.0	1.8	0.6	0.6	0.1	0.5	4.9	4.7	95	27	3.5	6.6	38.2	28.6	68.8	1.34	68.6	45.9
D. Stephens	F	34	21.7	6.1	5.1	0.2	0.6	0.5	0.8	2.8	8.9	105	29	3.6	6.7	60.0	0	53.2	0.38	89.0	60.0
W. Shepard	F	31	20.3	5.7	3.5	2.0	0.4	0.4	2.0	2.7	7.4	56	28	2.0	4.1	39.8	8.3	60.8	0.32	77.0	40.4
L. Franklin	G	3	6.7	3.0	0.7	0.7	0.7	0.3	0.0	1.0	4.3	-	-	-	-	100.0	100.0	66.7	0.79	104.2	116.7
D. Polee II	F	25	9.8	2.9	2.0	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.6	1.6	3.2	5	19	0.3	1.3	51.3	46.2	73.1	-4.4	71.4	59.0
S. Spencer	F	34	14.2	2.9	2.9	0.2	0.3	1.5	0.5	1.4	5.9	74	29	2.6	7.6	69.6	0	47.8	1.25	86.4	69.6
A. Douglas	G	6	1.5	1.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.7	0.5	-	-	-	-	75.0	66.7	0	-1.42	100.0	100.0
J. Johnson	F	13	4.0	1.1	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.1	0.5	0.4	0.5	-4	10	-0.4	-5.1	40.0	0	60.0	-0.96	74.5	40.0
J. Castleberry	G	4	1.5	0.5	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.5	0.2	-	-	-	-	50.0	0.0	0	-1.8	50.0	50.0
N. Ebrahimian	G	8	2.1	0.5	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.4	0.2	-	-	-	-	33.3	0	50.0	-2.28	42.0	33.3
R. Staten	G	5	1.6	0.4	0.2	0.0	0.4	0.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	-	-	-	-	20.0	0	0	-0.47	20.0	20.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG