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North Carolina

Season: 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017
Also known as: North Carolina Tar Heels
Program History
Coach: Roy Williams

2013 Team Stats (14 games)

76.5
PPG
69.2
Opp
+7.5
Margin
42.5%
FG%
33.7%
3P%
69.4%
FT%
40.1
RPG
17.0
APG
14.1
TO
89.3
Pace

Model Outputs

2012-2013
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 1621 (#39) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1591 (#19) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +147 elo More → 1117 (#40) HCA +147 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +3.0 More → +40.5 (#9) HCA +3.0
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.3 More → +20.5 (#34) HCA +3.3
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.642 (#37) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff +3.8 More → 0.610 (#74) NetEff +3.8
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +8.0 More → 0.716 (#40) AdjNet +8.0
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +8.4 More → 0.725 (#38) AdjNet +8.4
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 73.6 | AdjD 64.7 More → 0.692 (#34) AdjO 73.6 | AdjD 64.7
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.902 (#27) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.883 (#27) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 100 | GP 36 More → 1302 (#21) RD 100 | GP 36

2013 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2012-11-09 vs Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs W 76 - 59
2012-11-11 vs Florida Atlantic Owls W 80 - 56
2012-11-16 @ Long Beach State Beach W 78 - 63
2012-11-19 vs Mississippi State Bulldogs W 95 - 49
2012-11-20 vs Butler Bulldogs L 71 - 82
2012-11-21 @ Chaminade Silverswords W 112 - 70
2012-11-27 @ Indiana Hoosiers L 59 - 83
2012-12-01 vs UAB Blazers W 102 - 84
2012-12-08 vs East Tennessee State Buccaneers W 78 - 55
2012-12-15 vs East Carolina Pirates W 93 - 87
2012-12-19 @ Texas Longhorns L 67 - 85
2012-12-22 vs McNeese Cowboys W 97 - 63
2012-12-29 vs UNLV Rebels W 79 - 73
2013-01-06 @ Virginia Cavaliers L 52 - 61
2013-01-10 vs Miami Hurricanes L 59 - 68
2013-01-12 @ Florida State Seminoles W 77 - 72
2013-01-19 vs Maryland Terrapins W 62 - 52
2013-01-23 vs Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets W 79 - 63
2013-01-26 @ NC State Wolfpack L 83 - 91
2013-01-29 @ Boston College Eagles W 82 - 70
2013-02-02 vs Virginia Tech Hokies W 72 - 60
2013-02-05 vs Wake Forest Demon Deacons W 87 - 62
2013-02-09 @ Miami Hurricanes L 61 - 87
2013-02-13 @ Duke Blue Devils L 68 - 73
2013-02-16 vs Virginia Cavaliers W 93 - 81
2013-02-19 @ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets W 70 - 58
2013-02-23 vs NC State Wolfpack W 76 - 65
2013-02-28 @ Clemson Tigers W 68 - 59
2013-03-03 vs Florida State Seminoles W 79 - 58
2013-03-06 @ Maryland Terrapins W 79 - 68
2013-03-09 vs Duke Blue Devils L 53 - 69
2013-03-15 vs Florida State Seminoles W 83 - 62
2013-03-16 vs Maryland Terrapins W 79 - 76
2013-03-17 @ Miami Hurricanes L 77 - 87
2013-03-22 vs Villanova Wildcats W 78 - 71
2013-03-24 @ Kansas Jayhawks L 58 - 70

2013 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
P.J. Hairston P.J. Hairston G 34 23.6 14.6 4.3 1.4 1.3 0.4 1.1 5.4 15.3 - - - 43.2 37.3 86.0 1.67 119.6 54.3
J. McAdoo J. McAdoo F 36 29.9 14.4 7.3 1.1 1.5 0.4 2.7 6.2 15.9 270 7.5 7.5 43.0 0 59.5 0.71 99.6 43.0
R. Bullock Jr. R. Bullock Jr. G-F 35 31.4 13.9 6.5 2.9 1.3 0.3 1.2 4.5 19.1 27 1.8 11.5 44.9 40.0 71.4 0.25 145.0 55.8
M. Paige M. Paige G 35 29.2 8.2 2.7 4.6 1.4 0.1 2.5 3.7 10.8 - - - 31.8 31.5 80.8 1.2 101.8 38.4
D. Strickland D. Strickland G 36 27.9 7.8 2.4 4.2 1.2 0.1 1.3 3.2 11.1 91 2.5 4.1 44.8 20.0 74.4 0.1 104.5 46.1
L. McDonald L. McDonald G 30 17.7 7.2 2.1 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.7 3.3 7.1 166 5.5 10.5 34.3 34.7 76.5 1.34 101.0 42.9
B. Johnson B. Johnson F 36 10.6 5.4 3.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 2.6 6.8 20 2.2 4.7 53.8 0 40.0 1.28 100.1 53.8
J.P. Tokoto J.P. Tokoto F 35 8.6 2.6 1.7 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.9 1.3 3.5 12 0.3 1.3 59.1 0.0 35.0 -0.1 86.2 59.1
J. James J. James F 30 9.4 2.3 2.4 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.1 3.7 113 3.8 13.9 50.0 0 66.7 0.68 99.6 50.0
J. Simmons J. Simmons F 32 7.3 1.8 1.7 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.7 3.2 -254 -8.2 -13.7 52.4 0 70.0 0.54 116.1 52.4
D. Hubert D. Hubert F 36 9.4 1.1 1.7 0.1 0.2 0.8 0.4 0.4 3.2 64 1.8 7.3 56.2 0 25.0 0.48 115.4 56.2
L. Davis L. Davis G 20 4.1 0.4 0.2 1.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.0 1.6 37 1.3 11.6 0 0 0 0.09 0 0
W. Moody W. Moody G 13 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.3 - - - 0.0 0 0 - 250.0 0.0
J. Manor J. Manor F 12 1.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 - - - 0.0 0.0 0 - 50.0 0.0
D. Robinson D. Robinson F 12 1.4 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 -78 -2.6 -5.5 0.0 0 0 -0.07 100.0 0.0
F. Tanner F. Tanner F 13 1.5 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 -0.1 - - - 0.0 0.0 0 - 33.3 0.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG