Model Predictions
| Model | Duke Blue Devils | North Carolina Tar Heels | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 71.7% | 28.3% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 59.6% | 40.4% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 51.3% | 48.7% | -0.3 | ✓ (15.7 off) |
| Pythagorean | 54.6% | 45.4% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 88.5% | 11.5% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 84.1% | 15.9% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 83.9% | 16.1% | - | ✓ |
Actual: North Carolina Tar Heels -16 (53-69). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Duke Blue Devils
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q. Cook * | 40 | 5-12 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 9 | - |
| M. Plumlee * | 37 | 10-15 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 23 | 19 | - |
| S. Curry * | 37 | 8-13 | 2-6 | 2-2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 11 | - |
| R. Kelly * | 28 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 8 | - |
| T. Thornton * | 28 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | - |
| R. Sulaimon | 15 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | - |
| J. Hairston | 12 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | - |
| A. Jefferson | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
North Carolina Tar Heels
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. McAdoo * | 34 | 6-14 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 6 | - |
| R. Bullock Jr. * | 32 | 4-9 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 6 | - |
| D. Strickland * | 31 | 2-8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -4 | - |
| P.J. Hairston * | 29 | 4-12 | 1-6 | 5-5 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 10 | - |
| F. Tanner * | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| M. Paige | 32 | 1-6 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 2 | - |
| L. McDonald | 14 | 2-8 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -1 | - |
| B. Johnson | 8 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
| J.P. Tokoto | 7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| J. James | 4 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | - |
| D. Hubert | 3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | - |
| J. Simmons | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| L. Davis | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter