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2013-02-16

Model Predictions

Model Virginia Cavaliers North Carolina Tar Heels Spread Result
Elo 57.5% 42.5% -
Bradley-Terry 48.8% 51.2% -
Margin 29.4% 70.6% +4.8 (7.2 off)
Pythagorean 43.0% 57.0% -
Efficiency 93.3% 6.7% -
Adjusted Efficiency 35.0% 65.0% -
Log Adjusted 34.9% 65.1% -

Actual: North Carolina Tar Heels +12 (93-81). Predictions use season-end ratings.

Virginia Cavaliers

Player MIN FG 3PT FT REB AST STL BLK TO PTS Numbers RAPM GS
J. Evans * 33 0-0 0-0 0-0 1 5 2 0 6 12 14 -
J. Harris * 33 0-0 0-0 0-0 2 1 2 1 3 27 30 -
J. Anderson * 32 0-0 0-0 0-0 2 5 0 1 1 8 15 -
A. Mitchell * 29 0-0 0-0 0-0 9 0 0 0 2 9 16 -
P. Jesperson * 26 0-0 0-0 0-0 2 0 2 0 1 9 12 -
E. Nolte 26 0-0 0-0 0-0 2 0 1 0 0 6 9 -
T. Jones 8 0-0 0-0 0-0 0 1 0 0 1 3 3 -
D. Atkins 8 0-0 0-0 0-0 3 0 0 0 0 4 7 -
T. Barnette 4 0-0 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 3 3 -
D. Browman 1 0-0 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -

North Carolina Tar Heels

Player MIN FG 3PT FT REB AST STL BLK TO PTS Numbers RAPM GS
R. Bullock Jr. * 36 0-0 0-0 0-0 3 4 4 1 1 11 22 -
M. Paige * 30 0-0 0-0 0-0 4 3 2 0 2 17 24 -
D. Strickland * 30 0-0 0-0 0-0 1 6 1 0 1 12 19 -
P.J. Hairston * 29 0-0 0-0 0-0 7 0 1 0 0 29 37 -
L. McDonald * 18 0-0 0-0 0-0 1 2 0 0 0 7 10 -
J. McAdoo 30 0-0 0-0 0-0 10 1 1 1 3 9 19 -
B. Johnson 11 0-0 0-0 0-0 4 0 1 0 0 6 11 -
J. Simmons 8 0-0 0-0 0-0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 -
J.P. Tokoto 3 0-0 0-0 0-0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 -
W. Moody 1 0-0 0-0 0-0 1 1 0 0 0 0 2 -
F. Tanner 1 0-0 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 -
D. Robinson 1 0-0 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -
J. Manor 1 0-0 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -
D. Hubert 1 0-0 0-0 0-0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 -

* = starter