Model Predictions
| Model | North Carolina Tar Heels | Virginia Cavaliers | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 27.1% | 72.9% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 37.1% | 62.9% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 44.7% | 55.3% | +1.2 | ✓ (7.8 off) |
| Pythagorean | 51.0% | 49.0% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 1.0% | 99.0% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 59.0% | 41.0% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 59.1% | 40.9% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Virginia Cavaliers +9 (61-52). Predictions use season-end ratings.
North Carolina Tar Heels
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Bullock Jr. * | 32 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 22 | 29 | - |
| J. McAdoo * | 30 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 14 | - |
| M. Paige * | 28 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | - |
| D. Strickland * | 28 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 8 | - |
| D. Hubert * | 19 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | - |
| P.J. Hairston | 22 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 14 | - |
| L. McDonald | 15 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | - |
| B. Johnson | 10 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | - |
| J. James | 9 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - |
| J.P. Tokoto | 7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | - |
Virginia Cavaliers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Harris * | 36 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 26 | - |
| A. Mitchell * | 31 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 20 | - |
| P. Jesperson * | 20 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 10 | - |
| T. Jones * | 20 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 6 | - |
| D. Atkins * | 16 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | - |
| E. Nolte | 23 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 14 | - |
| J. Evans | 21 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 11 | - |
| J. Anderson | 19 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9 | - |
| M. Tobey | 14 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3 | - |
* = starter