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Illinois State

Season: 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017
Also known as: Illinois State Redbirds, Illinois State
Program History
Coach: Ryan Pedon

2026 Team Stats (34 games)

73.7
PPG
69.1
Opp
+4.6
Margin
46.2%
FG%
34.9%
3P%
70.9%
FT%
34.9
RPG
13.0
APG
11.4
TO
76.1
Pace
74.9
AdjO
68.0
AdjD
#96
Rank

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 1133 (#76) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1106 (#89) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +109 elo More → 1091 (#56) HCA +109 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.2 More → +6.6 (#96) HCA +2.2
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.5 More → +17.8 (#106) HCA +2.5
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.693 (#75) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff +7.7 More → 0.735 (#97) NetEff +7.7
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +10.0 More → 0.759 (#91) AdjNet +10.0
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +10.1 More → 0.763 (#91) AdjNet +10.1
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 74.9 | AdjD 68.0 More → 0.652 (#96) AdjO 74.9 | AdjD 68.0
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 71.1 | AdjD 66.9 More → 0.595 (#126) AdjO 71.1 | AdjD 66.9
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.856 (#80) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.822 (#78) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 95 | GP 34 More → 1175 (#77) RD 95 | GP 34

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-06 @ Ohio Bobcats L 68 - 72
2025-11-09 vs Cornell Big Red W 76 - 65
2025-11-14 @ USC Trojans L 67 - 87
2025-11-16 @ Long Beach State Beach W 82 - 80
2025-11-20 vs Rockford Regents W 93 - 48
2025-11-23 vs Coastal Carolina Chanticleers W 94 - 42
2025-11-27 vs Charlotte 49ers W 79 - 69
2025-11-28 vs Furman Paladins W 72 - 65
2025-12-03 vs Eastern Kentucky Colonels W 89 - 78
2025-12-13 @ Utah State Aggies L 78 - 83
2025-12-18 @ Southern Illinois Salukis W 75 - 68
2025-12-21 vs Indiana State Sycamores W 85 - 65
2025-12-29 @ Drake Bulldogs W 73 - 56
2026-01-01 vs Evansville Purple Aces W 73 - 47
2026-01-07 @ Valparaiso Beacons L 71 - 77
2026-01-10 vs UIC Flames L 59 - 63
2026-01-14 @ Indiana State Sycamores L 89 - 94
2026-01-21 vs Northern Iowa Panthers W 59 - 54
2026-01-25 @ Belmont Bruins L 69 - 80
2026-01-28 @ Murray State Racers W 70 - 65
2026-02-03 vs Southern Illinois Salukis L 50 - 54
2026-02-06 vs Drake Bulldogs W 86 - 76
2026-02-09 @ Evansville Purple Aces L 80 - 88
2026-02-12 vs Valparaiso Beacons W 86 - 64
2026-02-15 @ UIC Flames L 56 - 83
2026-02-18 vs Murray State Racers W 78 - 61
2026-02-21 @ Bradley Braves L 60 - 74
2026-02-25 @ Northern Iowa Panthers W 71 - 69
2026-03-01 vs Belmont Bruins W 81 - 74
2026-03-06 vs Northern Iowa Panthers L 52 - 74
2026-03-18 vs Kent State Golden Flashes W 79 - 58
2026-03-22 @ Wake Forest Demon Deacons W 78 - 75
2026-03-25 @ Dayton Flyers W 61 - 55
2026-04-02 @ Auburn Tigers L 66 - 88

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
C. Walker C. Walker F 30 22.7 13.5 5.1 1.9 0.8 0.6 2.3 9.0 10.6 145 6.0 15.0 53.5 30.0 69.9 1.37 60.0 55.2
J. Kinziger J. Kinziger G 34 32.7 11.7 2.5 3.2 1.3 0.1 2.2 10.1 6.5 172 6.9 14.6 40.1 32.4 78.3 0.8 52.4 48.5
Ty'Reek Coleman Ty'Reek Coleman - 33 23.2 10.1 2.7 1.7 0.9 0.2 1.7 6.9 7.0 147 7.0 13.2 50.0 39.3 70.2 0.88 61.0 57.2
Ty Pence Ty Pence G 34 23.9 9.8 4.4 1.6 0.5 0.4 1.0 6.9 8.7 113 5.4 9.9 54.5 37.5 69.0 0.7 62.3 60.2
B. Skunberg B. Skunberg - 33 27.0 9.0 4.5 1.4 0.5 0.1 1.2 7.5 6.8 61 2.9 4.9 41.9 38.4 72.0 -0.03 55.0 52.6
L. Wolf L. Wolf G 34 23.8 7.6 5.0 0.6 0.8 0.1 0.9 5.6 7.7 89 4.0 10.1 48.7 38.0 84.6 0.3 62.5 59.4
Mason Klabo Mason Klabo - 32 15.5 5.2 2.2 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.6 4.0 4.3 56 2.8 10.5 44.9 35.5 78.1 0.26 58.8 55.5
L. Moore L. Moore G 34 13.6 3.3 1.3 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.5 2.9 2.3 36 1.6 6.0 39.0 31.6 50.0 0.01 49.1 48.0
B. Lieb B. Lieb - 34 12.2 3.0 3.7 0.6 0.2 0.9 0.7 2.4 5.3 -10 -0.5 -2.2 50.6 0 54.3 -0.56 52.4 50.6
J. Daugherty J. Daugherty F 27 10.3 2.9 1.6 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.2 3.3 1.5 79 4.2 19.6 25.0 26.2 81.2 0.08 41.0 36.9
C. Barnes C. Barnes F 12 7.2 1.4 1.9 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.5 1.0 2.6 8 0.8 5.8 66.7 50.0 0 0.06 70.8 70.8
Ty Blake Ty Blake - 6 2.2 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 -0.2 4 0.7 13.9 40.0 50.0 0 0.16 50.0 50.0
Isaac Ericksen Isaac Ericksen F 0 - 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Nick Allen Nick Allen F 0 - 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG