Model Predictions
| Model | Drake Bulldogs | Illinois State Redbirds | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 18.3% | 81.7% | +9.8 | ✓ (0.2 off) |
| Bradley-Terry | 19.5% | 80.5% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 13.4% | 86.6% | +10.2 | ✓ (0.2 off) |
| Pythagorean | 34.2% | 65.8% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 13.2% | 86.8% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 13.0% | 87.0% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 12.9% | 87.1% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 27.4% | 72.6% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Illinois State Redbirds +10 (86-76). Ratings: 2025-26 season-end ratings.
Drake Bulldogs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Quinn * | 39 | 6-18 | 0-3 | 5-7 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 2 | +2.0 |
| Andrew Alia * | 38 | 6-11 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 16 | +9.3 |
| Owen Larson * | 34 | 5-13 | 2-8 | 2-2 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 14 | +0.0 |
| Okku Federiko * | 26 | 6-8 | 2-3 | 3-5 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 19 | -0.4 |
| Eli Shetlar * | 20 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -9.0 |
| Jaehshon Thomas | 22 | 1-7 | 0-2 | 3-4 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | +3.9 |
| Isaiah Carr | 15 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | -5.0 |
| Braden Appelhans | 6 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | +11.4 |
Illinois State Redbirds
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnny Kinziger * | 31 | 3-14 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | -3 | -5.6 |
| Boden Skunberg * | 30 | 5-10 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 13 | -21.0 |
| Mason Klabo * | 26 | 0-4 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -3.4 |
| Landon Wolf * | 25 | 4-5 | 2-3 | 2-3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 13 | +0.3 |
| Chase Walker * | 23 | 8-10 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 18 | 12 | +11.0 |
| Ty'Reek Coleman | 20 | 5-8 | 2-3 | 7-9 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 22 | -0.7 |
| Ty Pence | 17 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 6 | +0.1 |
| Brandon Lieb | 15 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 1-3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 8 | -7.7 |
| Landon Moore | 10 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | +13.5 |
| Jack Daugherty | 3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3.8 |
* = starter