Model Predictions
| Model | Illinois State Redbirds | Dayton Flyers | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 34.4% | 65.6% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 28.1% | 71.9% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 30.1% | 69.9% | +4.6 | ✗ (10.6 off) |
| Pythagorean | 47.3% | 52.7% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 83.5% | 16.5% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 36.1% | 63.9% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 36.3% | 63.7% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 38.1% | 61.9% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Dayton Flyers -6 (55-61). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Illinois State Redbirds
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Kinziger | 39 | 5-9 | 4-7 | 2-3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 9 | - |
| L. Wolf | 33 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 8 | - |
| Ty Pence | 28 | 5-9 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 7 | - |
| C. Walker | 27 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 5-11 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 20 | - |
| B. Skunberg | 25 | 3-8 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 5 | - |
| T. Coleman | 20 | 2-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 2 | - |
| M. Klabo | 14 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | - |
| B. Lieb | 12 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 7 | - |
| L. Moore | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
Dayton Flyers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Jones | 36 | 4-11 | 0-2 | 1-4 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 11 | - |
| A. L'Etang | 31 | 4-10 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 8 | - |
| J. Derkack | 28 | 4-12 | 0-2 | 3-4 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 7 | - |
| D. Montgomery | 22 | 3-7 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | - |
| B. Heard | 21 | 2-4 | 1-3 | 7-7 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 11 | - |
| J. Conner | 21 | 0-6 | 0-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -4 | - |
| D. Friery | 16 | 1-4 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 | - |
| J. Bennett | 9 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| J. Simon | 7 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
| M. Thomas | 7 | 1-5 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | - |
| S. Pouedet | 2 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
| M. Grant | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| W. Maxwell | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter