Model Predictions
| Model | Illinois State Redbirds | Drake Bulldogs | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 58.6% | 41.4% | -4.3 | ✓ (12.7 off) |
| Bradley-Terry | 69.9% | 30.1% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 73.7% | 26.3% | -5.7 | ✓ (11.3 off) |
| Pythagorean | 59.8% | 40.2% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 81.0% | 19.0% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 81.1% | 18.9% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 60.6% | 39.4% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Drake Bulldogs -17 (56-73). Ratings: 2025-26 season-end ratings.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Illinois State Redbirds
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnny Kinziger * | 36 | 5-8 | 3-5 | 2-4 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 14 | +13.3 |
| Boden Skunberg * | 32 | 5-8 | 3-6 | 1-1 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 12 | +10.2 |
| Ty Pence * | 28 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 1 | - |
| Chase Walker * | 23 | 6-7 | 0-0 | 5-7 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 17 | 11 | +11.6 |
| Ty'Reek Coleman * | 21 | 3-3 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 8 | 3 | - |
| Landon Wolf | 29 | 5-6 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 14 | - |
| Landon Moore | 16 | 1-4 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | - |
| Brandon Lieb | 8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -0.5 |
| Mason Klabo | 7 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
Drake Bulldogs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Alia * | 33 | 3-6 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 8 | -10.9 |
| Jalen Quinn * | 32 | 3-13 | 0-2 | 4-8 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 0 | - |
| Owen Larson * | 30 | 3-9 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 4 | - |
| Okku Federiko * | 25 | 4-10 | 1-3 | 2-4 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 7 | - |
| W. Exacte * | 18 | 2-6 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -1 | - |
| Eli Shetlar | 24 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 9 | +5.4 |
| Braden Appelhans | 22 | 2-8 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | - |
| Griffen Goodbary | 12 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | - |
| Isaiah Carr | 4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | - |
* = starter