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VMI Keydets

Season: 2027 preview 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017
Also known as: VMI Keydets
Program History
Coach: Andrew Wilson

2026 Team Stats (32 games)

72.0
PPG
80.0
Opp
-8.0
Margin
40.2%
FG%
32.9%
3P%
72.3%
FT%
33.3
RPG
12.6
APG
10.0
TO
68.0
Est. poss./game
64.5
Adj PPG
82.5
Adj Opp PPG
#359
Scoring Rank

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 573 (#359) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 654 (#359) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +75 elo More → 815 (#363) HCA +75 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.3 More → -19.2 (#359) HCA +2.3
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.2 More → -17.7 (#358) HCA +2.2
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.097 (#357) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff -21.7 More → 0.097 (#357) NetEff -21.7
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -25.5 More → 0.050 (#358) AdjNet -25.5
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -25.6 More → 0.049 (#358) AdjNet -25.6
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 64.5 | AdjD 82.5 More → 0.163 (#359) AdjO 64.5 | AdjD 82.5
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 66.9 | AdjD 79.6 More → 0.239 (#360) AdjO 66.9 | AdjD 79.6
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.117 (#359) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.127 (#361) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 157 | GP 29 More → 638 (#360) RD 157 | GP 29

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-03 vs Johnson & Wales-Charlotte JOHNSON & WALES-CHARLOTTE W 122 - 58
2025-11-07 @ Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles W 78 - 74
2025-11-09 @ Missouri Tigers L 68 - 106
2025-11-12 vs Virginia Lynchburg Dragons W 106 - 54
2025-11-15 vs Jacksonville Dolphins L 67 - 69
2025-11-19 @ Richmond Spiders L 54 - 87
2025-11-22 @ Stetson Hatters L 80 - 99
2025-11-24 @ Buffalo Bulls L 70 - 78
2025-11-26 vs Bowling Green Falcons L 48 - 81
2025-11-29 @ UCF Knights L 57 - 82
2025-12-05 vs Christendom Crusaders W 89 - 36
2025-12-09 vs Loyola Maryland Greyhounds W 86 - 70
2025-12-21 @ Radford Highlanders L 90 - 97
2026-01-01 vs Samford Bulldogs L 58 - 78
2026-01-03 vs Chattanooga Mocs W 79 - 71
2026-01-07 @ East Tennessee State Buccaneers L 67 - 81
2026-01-10 @ Furman Paladins L 48 - 69
2026-01-15 vs Mercer Bears L 67 - 77
2026-01-17 vs The Citadel Bulldogs L 68 - 82
2026-01-21 vs UNC Greensboro Spartans L 78 - 85
2026-01-24 @ Western Carolina Catamounts L 58 - 88
2026-01-29 @ The Citadel Bulldogs L 56 - 80
2026-01-31 @ Mercer Bears L 81 - 95
2026-02-04 vs Wofford Terriers L 67 - 81
2026-02-07 vs East Tennessee State Buccaneers L 70 - 87
2026-02-11 @ UNC Greensboro Spartans L 71 - 92
2026-02-14 vs Furman Paladins L 72 - 90
2026-02-18 @ Wofford Terriers L 76 - 82
2026-02-21 vs Western Carolina Catamounts L 62 - 81
2026-02-26 @ Samford Bulldogs L 61 - 80
2026-02-28 @ Chattanooga Mocs L 79 - 86
2026-03-06 @ UNC Greensboro Spartans L 70 - 84

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM GP PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
TJ Johnson TJ Johnson F 31 35.6 18.3 7.2 1.4 1.5 0.2 1.6 13.7 13.1 -294 27 -10.9 -12.5 39.8 35.5 81.9 -1.12 57.9 52.7
Linus Holmstrom Linus Holmstrom G 31 27.2 11.4 2.5 1.7 1.1 0.2 1.4 8.9 6.4 - - - - 43.8 39.4 76.2 - 59.8 58.0
Tan Yildizoglu Tan Yildizoglu G 31 31.1 10.2 3.6 4.7 1.5 0.0 2.3 9.5 8.2 - - - - 39.9 27.1 63.3 - 48.2 45.4
Mario Tatum, Jr. Mario Tatum, Jr. - 31 25.9 8.5 2.0 1.4 0.7 0.1 0.6 7.5 4.5 - - - - 39.5 27.3 64.6 - 48.9 45.3
Alexander Daushvili Alexander Daushvili F 5 17.2 6.8 4.2 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.6 3.4 8.6 - - - - 41.2 0.0 83.3 -1.02 61.7 41.2
Jaylen Pazon Jaylen Pazon - 20 13.4 6.7 2.2 0.7 0.3 0.3 1.1 5.9 3.1 - - - - 42.4 17.6 71.1 - 49.4 44.9
Aj Clark Aj Clark G 22 26.5 6.6 6.0 1.6 1.3 0.8 1.1 5.4 9.9 - - - - 46.2 37.0 66.7 - 53.6 50.4
Walker Andrews Walker Andrews G 29 13.4 5.9 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.0 0.3 5.0 2.6 - - - - 37.7 33.3 84.4 - 53.1 49.0
Cal Liston Cal Liston F 32 23.0 5.3 3.2 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.7 4.8 4.7 - - - - 37.5 33.3 72.0 - 52.5 50.3
Kaden Stuckey Kaden Stuckey F 28 18.7 4.4 4.9 0.5 0.4 0.8 1.1 4.2 5.7 - - - - 35.3 0.0 62.9 - 42.0 35.3
Branford Edmonds Iii Branford Edmonds Iii - 5 5.6 2.6 1.6 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.2 2.0 2.4 - - - - 50.0 37.5 0 -0.82 65.0 65.0
Mason Hagedorn Mason Hagedorn - 7 9.0 2.0 1.7 0.1 0.3 0.9 0.1 3.3 1.6 - - - - 21.7 36.4 0 - 30.4 30.4
Mason Lawson Mason Lawson G 4 1.5 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.5 - - - - 100.0 100.0 0 -1.46 150.0 150.0
Rickey Bradley Rickey Bradley G 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0
Robert Peters Robert Peters F 0 - 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG

2025-2026 Shot Zones

1931 located field-goal attempts in 32 games (ESPN). Each zone is coloured by the player with the largest share of the team's made-shot points there (left) and of its misses there (right).

Yildizoglu18% Yildizoglu22% Johnson38% Andrews33% Yildizoglu29% Johnson24% Holmstrom30% Johnson35% Johnson34% Johnson34%
Points: who the team's points here most likely come from
Stuckey20% Yildizoglu22% Pazon16% Yildizoglu29% Yildizoglu32% Johnson29% Holmstrom20% Johnson29% Johnson34% Johnson27%
Misses: who misses most here

TJ JohnsonLinus HolmstromTan YildizogluWalker AndrewsJaylen PazonKaden Stuckey

Zone FGM-FGA FG% Pts Top scorer Runner-up Most misses Runner-up
Restricted area 211-353 59.8 422 Tan Yildizoglu 18% (76 pts) Aj Clark 16% (66 pts) Kaden Stuckey 20% (28 misses) Mario Tatum, Jr. 19% (27 misses)
Paint (non-RA) 164-396 41.4 328 Tan Yildizoglu 22% (72 pts) Mario Tatum, Jr. 16% (54 pts) Tan Yildizoglu 22% (51 misses) Mario Tatum, Jr. 16% (36 misses)
Mid-range left 21-52 40.4 42 TJ Johnson 38% (16 pts) Mario Tatum, Jr. 19% (8 pts) Jaylen Pazon 16% (5 misses) Tan Yildizoglu 16% (5 misses)
Mid-range center 9-23 39.1 18 Walker Andrews 33% (6 pts) Linus Holmstrom 22% (4 pts) Tan Yildizoglu 29% (4 misses) Walker Andrews 29% (4 misses)
Mid-range right 28-65 43.1 56 Tan Yildizoglu 29% (16 pts) TJ Johnson 25% (14 pts) Tan Yildizoglu 32% (12 misses) TJ Johnson 14% (5 misses)
Left corner 3 29-80 36.2 87 TJ Johnson 24% (21 pts) Walker Andrews 24% (21 pts) TJ Johnson 29% (15 misses) Linus Holmstrom 20% (10 misses)
Right corner 3 23-69 33.3 69 Linus Holmstrom 30% (21 pts) Cal Liston 17% (12 pts) Linus Holmstrom 20% (9 misses) Mario Tatum, Jr. 15% (7 misses)
Above-break 3 left 109-338 32.2 327 TJ Johnson 35% (114 pts) Linus Holmstrom 16% (51 pts) TJ Johnson 29% (66 misses) Linus Holmstrom 17% (39 misses)
Above-break 3 center 80-253 31.6 240 TJ Johnson 34% (81 pts) Linus Holmstrom 22% (54 pts) TJ Johnson 34% (59 misses) Linus Holmstrom 20% (35 misses)
Above-break 3 right 102-302 33.8 306 TJ Johnson 34% (105 pts) Linus Holmstrom 29% (90 pts) TJ Johnson 27% (54 misses) Tan Yildizoglu 16% (31 misses)