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NCAAM NCAA Tournament Sim

Tournament board plus Monte Carlo odds using the best current bakeoff model by default.

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Source field: Internal S-curve. Sim engine: Ensemble Recency.

Random boards are shareable by seed. The copy link on the bracket preserves the current board and score toggle.

NCAAM NCAA Tournament

Printable bracket

Internal S-curve. Ensemble Recency.

Most Likely Generate Sim Bracket
Season: 2025-2026 Board: Most Likely Path Sims: 4,000 Upsets: 0 Champion: Michigan
R64
R64
R32
R32
S16
S16
E8
E8
Final Four
Championship
East Michigan
West Duke
South Arizona
Midwest Florida
1 Michigan 16 Baylor
8 Kentucky 9 TCU
5 Vanderbilt 12 Georgia
4 Virginia Cavaliers 13 Texas A&M
6 Kansas 11 Tulsa Golden Hurricane
3 St. John's Red Storm 14 Florida State
7 VCU 10 Auburn
2 Purdue Boilermakers 15 Seton Hall
1 Michigan 8 Kentucky
5 Vanderbilt 4 Virginia Cavaliers
6 Kansas 3 St. John's Red Storm
7 VCU 2 Purdue Boilermakers
1 Michigan 4 Virginia Cavaliers
3 St. John's Red Storm 2 Purdue Boilermakers
1 Michigan 2 Purdue Boilermakers
1 Arizona 16 Missouri
8 Santa Clara 9 Ohio State
5 Wisconsin 12 Akron
4 Arkansas 13 Cincinnati
6 Texas Tech 11 New Mexico Lobos
3 Gonzaga 14 West Virginia
7 South Florida Bulls 10 BYU
2 Houston 15 Utah Valley
1 Arizona 8 Santa Clara
5 Wisconsin 4 Arkansas
6 Texas Tech 3 Gonzaga
7 South Florida Bulls 2 Houston
1 Arizona 4 Arkansas
3 Gonzaga 2 Houston
1 Arizona 2 Houston
1 Duke 16 Boise State
8 UCLA 9 High Point
5 Utah State 12 Dayton
4 Alabama 13 Villanova
6 Saint Mary's 11 McNeese Cowboys
3 Iowa State 14 Northern Iowa Panthers
7 Iowa 10 Oklahoma
2 UConn 15 NC State Wolfpack
1 Duke 8 UCLA
5 Utah State 4 Alabama
6 Saint Mary's 3 Iowa State
7 Iowa 2 UConn
1 Duke 4 Alabama
3 Iowa State 2 UConn
1 Duke 2 UConn
1 Florida 16 Grand Canyon Lopes
8 Miami 9 Texas
5 Nebraska 12 Wichita State Shockers
4 Michigan State 13 San Diego State Aztecs
6 Louisville 11 Clemson
3 Tennessee 14 Miami (OH)
7 Saint Louis 10 North Carolina
2 Illinois Fighting Illini 15 Hofstra Pride
1 Florida 8 Miami
5 Nebraska 4 Michigan State
6 Louisville 3 Tennessee
7 Saint Louis 2 Illinois Fighting Illini
1 Florida 4 Michigan State
3 Tennessee 2 Illinois Fighting Illini
1 Florida 2 Illinois Fighting Illini
1 Michigan 1 Duke
1 Arizona 1 Florida
1 Michigan 1 Arizona
Projected champion Michigan
Projected champion: Michigan Board upsets: 0

Title Odds

Team Seed Region Rating R32 Sweet 16 Elite 8 Final 4 Title Gm Champion
1 East 0.9811 90.3% 76.6% 62.5% 46.6% 33.1% 23.5%
1 South 0.9726 85.6% 67.3% 49.9% 35.4% 24.0% 13.5%
1 West 0.9732 86.8% 68.4% 50.9% 34.3% 18.9% 11.7%
1 Midwest 0.9612 81.5% 58.3% 38.9% 24.1% 13.0% 6.8%
2 Midwest 0.9600 80.1% 58.5% 38.5% 22.9% 12.2% 5.5%
2 South 0.9592 79.8% 57.4% 36.0% 19.2% 11.4% 5.0%
2 East 0.9553 77.9% 53.0% 31.5% 13.9% 7.3% 4.0%
2 West 0.9568 78.1% 54.5% 33.1% 16.9% 7.6% 3.9%
3 East 0.9552 78.4% 52.9% 30.8% 12.9% 6.6% 3.4%
3 West 0.9522 75.7% 50.4% 28.7% 15.1% 6.2% 2.7%
3 South 0.9449 72.7% 45.5% 24.3% 11.1% 5.7% 2.4%
4 Midwest 0.9429 70.8% 44.8% 22.6% 11.8% 5.2% 2.1%
3 Midwest 0.9434 71.2% 44.0% 22.2% 11.6% 4.8% 1.9%
4 South 0.9396 67.9% 40.0% 17.4% 8.8% 4.2% 1.4%
4 West 0.9386 67.0% 39.7% 15.8% 7.7% 2.8% 1.1%
5 East 0.9362 67.3% 37.1% 11.2% 5.8% 2.5% 1.1%
4 East 0.9367 67.9% 38.5% 11.7% 5.4% 2.4% 1.0%
7 South 0.9167 55.8% 21.3% 10.5% 3.7% 1.7% 0.7%
5 West 0.9244 61.3% 31.9% 11.8% 5.3% 1.7% 0.7%
6 Midwest 0.9210 61.1% 29.4% 12.9% 5.4% 2.0% 0.6%
5 South 0.9243 62.4% 31.4% 11.4% 5.0% 1.9% 0.6%
6 South 0.9206 58.5% 26.8% 11.7% 4.3% 1.8% 0.6%
6 West 0.9203 58.1% 25.2% 11.6% 4.7% 1.8% 0.6%
5 Midwest 0.9219 61.3% 28.4% 11.7% 5.0% 1.8% 0.5%
7 East 0.9175 57.8% 23.1% 10.7% 3.8% 1.4% 0.5%
6 East 0.9182 56.3% 23.4% 10.3% 3.0% 1.1% 0.3%
7 Midwest 0.9115 54.9% 19.2% 8.7% 3.6% 1.4% 0.3%
7 West 0.9168 54.8% 21.8% 9.6% 3.7% 1.0% 0.3%
8 South 0.9072 50.5% 13.9% 6.5% 2.9% 1.2% 0.3%
8 West 0.9069 50.5% 14.0% 6.2% 2.2% 0.8% 0.3%
9 East 0.9047 50.6% 10.0% 4.7% 1.6% 0.6% 0.2%
8 Midwest 0.9079 51.7% 18.4% 8.1% 3.2% 1.1% 0.2%
10 Midwest 0.8978 45.1% 15.0% 6.3% 2.2% 0.6% 0.2%
10 South 0.8978 44.2% 14.2% 6.0% 1.9% 0.7% 0.2%
9 Midwest 0.9024 48.3% 16.2% 7.1% 3.1% 0.9% 0.1%
9 South 0.9027 49.5% 12.8% 5.5% 2.1% 0.8% 0.1%
11 Midwest 0.8848 38.9% 15.2% 5.3% 1.6% 0.5% 0.1%
10 East 0.8952 42.2% 14.7% 5.7% 1.5% 0.5% 0.1%
11 East 0.8952 43.7% 15.5% 5.7% 1.5% 0.5% 0.1%
8 East 0.9064 49.4% 10.0% 4.4% 1.5% 0.5% 0.1%
9 West 0.9041 49.5% 12.7% 5.8% 2.0% 0.4% 0.1%
13 Midwest 0.8762 29.1% 12.4% 4.2% 1.4% 0.5% 0.1%
11 South 0.8895 41.5% 17.1% 6.2% 1.4% 0.5% 0.1%
12 South 0.8806 37.6% 15.5% 4.1% 1.4% 0.5% 0.1%
13 West 0.8786 33.0% 13.3% 3.5% 1.3% 0.2% 0.1%
12 East 0.8794 32.7% 12.3% 2.5% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1%
10 West 0.8967 45.2% 15.4% 6.1% 2.1% 0.5% 0.1%
12 Midwest 0.8837 38.7% 14.3% 5.1% 1.6% 0.5% 0.1%
13 South 0.8770 32.1% 13.2% 3.3% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1%
11 West 0.8909 41.9% 15.4% 5.8% 1.9% 0.4% 0.1%
12 West 0.8805 38.7% 15.1% 4.0% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1%
14 South 0.8682 27.3% 10.6% 2.9% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1%
14 West 0.8651 24.3% 9.0% 2.6% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1%
16 Midwest 0.8520 18.5% 7.1% 2.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1%
16 West 0.8478 13.2% 4.9% 1.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1%
14 Midwest 0.8690 28.8% 11.5% 3.7% 1.2% 0.3% 0.0%
15 East 0.8581 22.1% 9.1% 2.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
15 West 0.8574 21.9% 8.3% 2.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
13 East 0.8792 32.1% 12.0% 1.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
15 Midwest 0.8530 19.9% 7.3% 2.5% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
15 South 0.8536 20.2% 7.2% 2.4% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
14 East 0.8639 21.6% 8.2% 2.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
16 South 0.8487 14.4% 5.9% 2.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
16 East 0.8477 9.7% 3.4% 1.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%

Upcoming Tournament Window Schedule

Upcoming games for the next ~10 days. During March this should mostly be conference tournament and NCAA tournament traffic.

No upcoming games found.