Boise State
2026-2027 Team Stats (3 games)
Model Outputs
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 1167 (#85) | Preseason prior 1146 (returning production + recruiting): last season 1085, returning -22, transfers +69, freshmen +14 |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1106 (#87) | HCA +206 elo |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 1103 (#87) | HCA +205 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +15.9 (#46) | HCA +2.2 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | +15.8 (#46) | HCA +2.2 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.823 (#74) | - |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.729 (#75) | AdjNet +19.3 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.726 (#76) | AdjNet +18.2 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.688 (#65) | AdjO 86.0 | AdjD 76.0 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.686 (#66) | AdjO 86.0 | AdjD 76.1 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.745 (#69) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.745 (#69) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 1137 (#87) | RD 203 | GP 2 |
| Adjusted Context Blend Adjusted Context Blend Chronologically trained component blend with rest and signed venue context. More → | 0.725 (#74) | Chronological component blend with rest and venue. |
Rank through the season
League rank each week from the model's fit of the games played by then, published the same way as the table above, so each line ends at the rank shown there. Select a point for its rating.
2026-2027 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-04 | vs | West Coast Baptist Eagles | W | 132 - 53 |
| 2026-11-08 | vs | Butler Bulldogs | W | 100 - 81 |
| 2026-11-11 | vs | Oakland Golden Grizzlies | W | 111 - 79 |
| 2026-11-15 | @ | Nebraska Cornhuskers | - | Preview |
| 2026-11-20 | vs | Sam Houston Bearkats | - | Preview |
2026-2027 Roster
Estimated Minutes by Position
Estimated from roster positions and box-score rates; an unlisted position is inferred from those rates, and missing rates are treated as zero. Legend numbers are each player's share of recorded roster minutes, scaled to five players' regulation minutes; they can differ from minutes per game in the roster below, especially when players miss games or coverage is incomplete. Each position column totals one regulation game's minutes. Use the labels or legend to highlight a player's estimated role.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM GP | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Aginaldo Neto
|
G | 3 | 30.3 | 20.0 | 3.7 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.3 | 2.0 | 12.3 | 17.7 | 97 | 3 | 32.3 | 42.5 | 54.1 | 66.7 | 82.4 | 2.84 | 67.4 | 62.2 |
Damari Wheeler-Thomas
|
G | 3 | 27.3 | 17.3 | 2.3 | 4.7 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 10.0 | 14.3 | 78 | 3 | 26.0 | 37.7 | 56.7 | 52.6 | 100.0 | -0.04 | 77.6 | 73.3 |
Dovydas Butka
|
F | 3 | 27.0 | 16.0 | 10.0 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 10.0 | 18.3 | 98 | 3 | 32.7 | 48.6 | 66.7 | 0.0 | 53.3 | 1.93 | 65.6 | 66.7 |
Spencer Ahrens
|
F | 3 | 25.7 | 15.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 2.0 | 12.0 | 9.3 | 65 | 3 | 21.7 | 34.0 | 47.2 | 30.0 | 62.5 | -0.44 | 56.9 | 55.6 |
Pearson Carmichael
|
F | 3 | 20.3 | 11.0 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 9.0 | 7.0 | 48 | 3 | 16.0 | 31.9 | 44.4 | 42.1 | 50.0 | 2.13 | 59.2 | 59.3 |
Jerquarius Stanback
|
F | 3 | 13.7 | 10.0 | 8.0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 4.0 | 18.7 | 60 | 3 | 20.0 | 57.9 | 75.0 | 50.0 | 78.6 | 2.35 | 82.6 | 79.2 |
Bhan Buom
|
F | 2 | 12.5 | 9.0 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 6.5 | 7.5 | 47 | 2 | 23.5 | 75.4 | 61.5 | 33.3 | 16.7 | 1.35 | 57.5 | 65.4 |
Julian Bowie
|
G | 3 | 17.0 | 8.3 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 8.0 | 6.0 | 71 | 3 | 23.7 | 54.3 | 37.5 | 31.2 | 100.0 | 1.59 | 50.2 | 47.9 |
Rayzhon Bergersen
|
G | 3 | 14.3 | 5.7 | 0.7 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 3.7 | 5.3 | 44 | 3 | 14.7 | 39.1 | 54.5 | 50.0 | 0 | 0.41 | 77.3 | 77.3 |
Jikany Deang
|
F | 2 | 7.0 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 19 | 2 | 9.5 | 58.5 | 42.9 | 20.0 | 0 | -0.01 | 50.0 | 50.0 |
Ethan Lathan
|
F | 3 | 8.7 | 2.0 | 3.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 5.3 | 12 | 3 | 4.0 | 18.7 | 50.0 | 0 | 0 | -0.24 | 50.0 | 50.0 |
Brady Hennig
|
G | 2 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 2.0 | 11 | 2 | 5.5 | 71.7 | 100.0 | 0 | 0 | 0.03 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
Brennan Ramirez
|
G | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Ty Rodgers
|
G | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Kaur Tomann
|
F | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Lamar Washington
|
G | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG
Alumni in the Pros
Former Boise State players in NBA 2026-2027, EuroLeague 2026-2027, G League 2026-2027, matched by provider player ids (ESPN athlete ids, ESPN bios, linked StatsNBA/EuroLeague ids). Only games after their last Boise State game count. These are observed results, not certified complete seasons. League and team are where each player last played a regular-season or playoff game (NBA ahead of G League when he played in both); recent games include the preseason.
Active alumni
| Player | At School | League | Team | GP | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | Last game | Last 30 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RayJ Dennis | 2019-21 | NBA | Atlanta Hawks | 1 | 7.6 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 11-02 4 pts, 2 reb, 2 ast | 1 GP, 4.0 PPG, 2.0 RPG, 2.0 APG |
| Derrick Alston Jr. | 2017-21 | EuroLeague | Virtus Bologna | 11 | 21.8 | 13.0 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 11-13 15 pts, 1 reb, 2 ast | 5 GP, 13.2 PPG, 1.8 RPG, 1.0 APG |
| Justinian Jessup | 2016-20 | EuroLeague | FC Bayern Munich | 10 | 14.5 | 7.2 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 11-12 2 pts, 0 reb, 0 ast | 4 GP, 9.2 PPG, 1.8 RPG, 1.0 APG |
| Cam Martin | 2023-24 | G League | Iowa Wolves | 0 | - | - | - | - | 11-08 8 pts, 3 reb, 1 ast Play-In | 2 GP, 10.0 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 2.0 APG |
| Tyson Degenhart | 2021-25 | G League | Raptors 905 | 0 | - | - | - | - | 11-14 15 pts, 4 reb, 2 ast Play-In | 5 GP, 15.6 PPG, 6.6 RPG, 2.6 APG |
Alumni around the leagues: recent games
| Date | Player | League | Team | Opponent | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | Box |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-14 | Tyson Degenhart | G League Play-In | Raptors 905 | @ Capital City Go-Go | 42 | 15 | 4 | 2 | Box |
| 2026-11-13 | Derrick Alston Jr. | EuroLeague | Virtus Bologna | @ Anadolu Efes Istanbul | 22 | 15 | 1 | 2 | Box |
| 2026-11-12 | Tyson Degenhart | G League Play-In | Raptors 905 | vs Greensboro Swarm | 35 | 12 | 14 | 3 | Box |
| 2026-11-12 | Justinian Jessup | EuroLeague | FC Bayern Munich | @ Valencia Basket | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | Box |
| 2026-11-11 | Tyson Degenhart | G League Play-In | Raptors 905 | vs Greensboro Swarm | 34 | 19 | 6 | 3 | Box |
| 2026-11-10 | RayJ Dennis | G League Play-In | College Park Skyhawks | vs Long Island Nets | 35 | 13 | 2 | 7 | Box |
| 2026-11-08 | RayJ Dennis | G League Play-In | College Park Skyhawks | vs Raptors 905 | 39 | 30 | 5 | 10 | Box |
| 2026-11-08 | Cam Martin | G League Play-In | Iowa Wolves | vs Wisconsin Herd | 22 | 8 | 3 | 1 | Box |
| 2026-11-06 | RayJ Dennis | G League Play-In | College Park Skyhawks | vs Raptors 905 | 40 | 22 | 6 | 11 | Box |
| 2026-11-06 | Derrick Alston Jr. | EuroLeague | Virtus Bologna | vs Dubai Basketball | 17 | 2 | 0 | 2 | Box |
| 2026-11-06 | Cam Martin | G League Play-In | Iowa Wolves | vs Wisconsin Herd | 31 | 12 | 12 | 3 | Box |
| 2026-11-05 | Justinian Jessup | EuroLeague | FC Bayern Munich | @ LDLC ASVEL Villeurbanne | 18 | 14 | 5 | 1 | Box |
| 2026-10-30 | Derrick Alston Jr. | EuroLeague | Virtus Bologna | vs Besiktas Istanbul | 25 | 19 | 4 | 1 | Box |
| 2026-10-27 | Justinian Jessup | EuroLeague | FC Bayern Munich | vs FC Barcelona | 19 | 6 | 1 | 1 | Box |
2026-2027 Shot Zones
234 located field-goal attempts in 3 games (ESPN). Each zone is coloured by the player with the largest share of the team's made-shot points there (left) and of its misses there (right).
Aginaldo NetoDamari Wheeler-ThomasDovydas ButkaSpencer AhrensPearson CarmichaelJulian BowieBhan BuomRayzhon Bergersen
| Zone | FGM-FGA | FG% | Pts | Top scorer | Runner-up | Most misses | Runner-up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Restricted area | 48-64 | 75.0 | 96 | Dovydas Butka 23% (22 pts) | Aginaldo Neto 17% (16 pts) | Dovydas Butka 25% (4 misses) | Aginaldo Neto 19% (3 misses) |
| Paint (non-RA) | 32-61 | 52.5 | 64 | Dovydas Butka 28% (18 pts) | Spencer Ahrens 25% (16 pts) | Aginaldo Neto 38% (11 misses) | Spencer Ahrens 17% (5 misses) |
| Mid-range left | 0-1 | 0.0 | 0 | - | - | Dovydas Butka 100% (1 misses) | - |
| Mid-range center | 0-0 | - | 0 | - | - | - | - |
| Mid-range right | 2-4 | 50.0 | 4 | Damari Wheeler-Thomas 100% (4 pts) | - | Bhan Buom 50% (1 misses) | Damari Wheeler-Thomas 50% (1 misses) |
| Left corner 3 | 8-20 | 40.0 | 24 | Rayzhon Bergersen 38% (9 pts) | Pearson Carmichael 25% (6 pts) | Pearson Carmichael 42% (5 misses) | Spencer Ahrens 33% (4 misses) |
| Right corner 3 | 8-15 | 53.3 | 24 | Pearson Carmichael 38% (9 pts) | Spencer Ahrens 25% (6 pts) | Julian Bowie 57% (4 misses) | Spencer Ahrens 29% (2 misses) |
| Above-break 3 left | 6-21 | 28.6 | 18 | Aginaldo Neto 33% (6 pts) | Damari Wheeler-Thomas 17% (3 pts) | Julian Bowie 27% (4 misses) | Damari Wheeler-Thomas 20% (3 misses) |
| Above-break 3 center | 4-10 | 40.0 | 12 | Damari Wheeler-Thomas 75% (9 pts) | Julian Bowie 25% (3 pts) | Damari Wheeler-Thomas 33% (2 misses) | Julian Bowie 33% (2 misses) |
| Above-break 3 right | 17-38 | 44.7 | 51 | Damari Wheeler-Thomas 24% (12 pts) | Spencer Ahrens 24% (12 pts) | Spencer Ahrens 24% (5 misses) | Damari Wheeler-Thomas 19% (4 misses) |