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Cal Poly

Season: 2027 preview 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017
Also known as: Cal Poly Mustangs
Program History
Coach: Joe Callero

2016 Team Stats (5 games)

71.0
PPG
89.6
Opp
-18.6
Margin
41.2%
FG%
44.2%
3P%
61.9%
FT%
30.6
RPG
13.4
APG
10.8
TO
-
Est. poss./game
71.6
Adj PPG
73.8
Adj Opp PPG
#197
Scoring Rank

Model Outputs

2015-2016
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 818 (#277) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 882 (#254) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +98 elo More → 896 (#300) HCA +98 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.9 More → -2.2 (#193) HCA +2.9
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.9 More → -4.4 (#230) HCA +2.9
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.336 (#242) -
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -4.0 More → 0.387 (#199) AdjNet -4.0
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -4.0 More → 0.387 (#199) AdjNet -4.0
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 71.6 | AdjD 73.8 More → 0.451 (#197) AdjO 71.6 | AdjD 73.8
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 69.0 | AdjD 72.9 More → 0.413 (#245) AdjO 69.0 | AdjD 72.9
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.347 (#249) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.340 (#259) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 137 | GP 28 More → 813 (#293) RD 137 | GP 28

2016 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2015-11-13 @ UNLV Rebels L 72 - 74
2015-11-15 @ UCLA Bruins L 83 - 88
2015-11-18 vs Cal State Monterey Bay Otters W 71 - 62
2015-11-21 @ Austin Peay Governors W 73 - 64
2015-11-22 vs UMBC Retrievers W 78 - 65
2015-11-28 vs Antelope Valley ANTELOPE VALLEY W 85 - 55
2015-12-03 vs Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons L 73 - 75
2015-12-05 vs Fresno State Bulldogs W 77 - 65
2015-12-14 @ Saint Mary's Gaels L 63 - 93
2015-12-17 @ USC Trojans L 82 - 101
2015-12-20 @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi Islanders L 74 - 80
2015-12-22 @ UTSA Roadrunners W 88 - 73
2015-12-29 @ Texas A&M Aggies L 63 - 82
2016-01-06 @ Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors L 73 - 86
2016-01-14 vs UC Santa Barbara Gauchos L 73 - 76
2016-01-16 vs Long Beach State Beach W 96 - 92
2016-01-21 @ Cal State Northridge Matadors L 74 - 76
2016-01-23 @ Cal State Fullerton Titans W 83 - 75
2016-01-28 vs UC Riverside Highlanders L 68 - 72
2016-01-30 @ UC Davis Aggies L 52 - 66
2016-02-03 vs UC Irvine Anteaters L 72 - 78
2016-02-06 vs Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors L 60 - 75
2016-02-11 @ Long Beach State Beach L 70 - 73
2016-02-13 @ UC Riverside Highlanders W 86 - 78
2016-02-18 vs UC Davis Aggies W 58 - 53
2016-02-20 vs Cal State Northridge Matadors L 71 - 75
2016-02-25 vs Cal State Fullerton Titans L 77 - 78
2016-03-03 @ UC Irvine Anteaters L 62 - 72
2016-03-05 @ UC Santa Barbara Gauchos L 50 - 69
2016-03-10 @ UC Irvine Anteaters L 64 - 84

2016 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM GP PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
G. Vincent G. Vincent - 2 33.5 20.5 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 2.5 0.0 24.0 - - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0
David Nwaba David Nwaba G 26 27.6 12.1 6.0 3.3 1.3 0.4 2.1 3.5 17.5 -33 19 -1.7 -2.6 38.0 0.0 64.9 -1.24 134.5 38.0
Reese Morgan Reese Morgan G 26 26.2 11.5 3.0 1.8 1.0 0.2 0.6 3.1 13.8 -18 19 -0.9 -1.6 40.0 51.8 85.3 1.4 156.9 58.1
Brian Bennett Brian Bennett F 26 19.7 9.5 4.3 0.8 0.2 0.2 0.7 3.4 10.9 -3 19 -0.2 -0.4 51.7 0 31.8 1.14 124.6 51.7
Luke Meikle Luke Meikle F 26 20.1 8.3 3.0 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.7 2.8 9.0 18 19 0.9 2.4 50.0 58.1 81.8 1.59 124.8 62.5
Joel Awich Joel Awich F 24 21.2 7.9 4.1 0.7 0.3 1.0 1.1 3.2 9.7 -8 18 -0.4 -0.8 29.9 13.8 76.5 0.28 111.9 32.5
Josh Martin Josh Martin F 18 16.6 6.3 3.9 0.6 0.3 0.7 1.3 1.7 8.8 -58 14 -4.1 -11.0 38.7 37.5 70.6 -2.92 148.1 43.5
Taylor Sutlive Taylor Sutlive G 25 22.3 6.0 1.8 1.5 0.9 0.2 0.6 1.8 8.0 -31 18 -1.7 -3.9 46.7 46.9 0.0 -1.17 166.2 63.3
Ridge Shipley Ridge Shipley G 25 22.8 5.4 1.6 2.2 0.7 0.1 1.3 2.0 6.6 -22 18 -1.2 -2.5 38.8 34.3 50.0 0.08 129.7 51.0
Jaylen Shead Jaylen Shead G 25 19.8 4.4 2.6 2.8 0.6 0.0 1.5 1.1 7.9 -43 18 -2.4 -4.7 32.1 20.0 63.6 -1.49 167.5 35.7
Zach Gordon Zach Gordon F 26 13.4 3.9 3.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.6 6.7 -44 19 -2.3 -8.5 80.0 0 47.4 -3.85 216.2 80.0
Mark Patterson Mark Patterson G 2 3.0 1.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5 - - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0
Trevor John Trevor John G 13 4.2 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 12 10 1.2 12.2 20.0 20.0 0 -0.34 90.0 30.0
Aleks Abrams Aleks Abrams F 4 7.0 0.0 1.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 1.5 - - - - 0 0 0 -1.09 0 0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG