Model Predictions
| Model | Cal Poly Mustangs | Cal State Northridge Matadors | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 40.0% | 60.0% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 46.8% | 53.2% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 51.7% | 48.3% | -0.4 | ✗ (2.4 off) |
| Pythagorean | 51.3% | 48.7% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 63.2% | 36.8% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 63.3% | 36.7% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 50.2% | 49.8% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Cal State Northridge Matadors +2 (76-74). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Cal Poly Mustangs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Nwaba * | 29 | 5-6 | 0-0 | 4-6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 14 | 8 | - |
| Reese Morgan * | 24 | 2-7 | 1-4 | 2-2 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 8 | - |
| Ridge Shipley * | 20 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 | - |
| Luke Meikle * | 17 | 2-4 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 6 | - |
| Zach Gordon * | 12 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | - |
| Taylor Sutlive | 25 | 3-4 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 7 | - |
| Brian Bennett | 24 | 7-14 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 5 | - |
| Joel Awich | 22 | 4-9 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 5 | - |
| Jaylen Shead | 15 | 2-4 | 0-2 | 2-3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 5 | - |
| Josh Martin | 12 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 5 | - |
Cal State Northridge Matadors
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kendall Smith * | 38 | 4-12 | 0-1 | 1-4 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 4 | - |
| Tre Hale-Edmerson * | 29 | 4-6 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 12 | - |
| Aaron Parks * | 24 | 3-8 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 6 | - |
| Olalekan Ajayi * | 19 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 | - |
| Jason Richardson * | 15 | 2-5 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | - |
| Micheal Warren | 25 | 3-7 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 7 | - |
| Jerron Wilbut | 19 | 4-7 | 3-5 | 4-4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 9 | - |
| Zacarry Douglas | 17 | 5-7 | 0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 8 | - |
| Tavrion Dawson | 14 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 3-4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 | - |
* = starter