Model Predictions
| Model | Cal Poly Mustangs | Austin Peay Governors | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 22.4% | 77.6% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 29.8% | 70.2% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 46.5% | 53.5% | +0.8 | ✗ (9.8 off) |
| Pythagorean | 43.5% | 56.5% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 60.7% | 39.3% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 60.9% | 39.1% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 47.2% | 52.8% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Austin Peay Governors -9 (64-73). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Cal Poly Mustangs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Nwaba * | 31 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 29 | - |
| Joel Awich * | 28 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 24 | - |
| Taylor Sutlive * | 25 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 4 | - |
| Ridge Shipley * | 20 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | - |
| Zach Gordon * | 18 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 10 | - |
| Jaylen Shead | 22 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 15 | - |
| Reese Morgan | 20 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 14 | - |
| Luke Meikle | 17 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | - |
| Brian Bennett | 16 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 10 | - |
| Trevor John | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Aleks Abrams | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
Austin Peay Governors
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ja'Corey Robinson * | 36 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 14 | 14 | - |
| C. Horton * | 34 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 20 | 33 | - |
| K. Davis * | 24 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 2 | - |
| K. Jones * | 19 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 11 | - |
| T. Thompson * | 13 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 10 | - |
| J. Murry | 20 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 12 | - |
| Z. Glotta | 16 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 8 | - |
| J. Savage | 15 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 7 | - |
| T. Ivory | 12 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - |
| C. Porter-Bunton | 11 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | - |
* = starter