Model Predictions
| Model | Fresno State Bulldogs | Cal Poly Mustangs | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 85.2% | 14.8% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 79.7% | 20.3% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 68.3% | 31.7% | -4.2 | ✗ (16.2 off) |
| Pythagorean | 61.8% | 38.2% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 81.6% | 18.4% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 81.6% | 18.4% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 58.4% | 41.6% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Cal Poly Mustangs +12 (77-65). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Fresno State Bulldogs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvelle Harris * | 34 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 22 | - |
| Cezar Guerrero * | 31 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 16 | - |
| Torren Jones * | 31 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 20 | - |
| Paul Watson * | 27 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 16 | - |
| Karachi Edo * | 12 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 7 | - |
| Julien Lewis | 24 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 12 | - |
| Cullen Russo | 20 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 16 | - |
| L. Ellison III | 15 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Terrell Carter | 6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | - |
Cal Poly Mustangs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Nwaba * | 33 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 24 | - |
| Joel Awich * | 29 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 17 | - |
| Ridge Shipley * | 25 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | - |
| Taylor Sutlive * | 21 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 19 | - |
| Brian Bennett * | 13 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 8 | - |
| Reese Morgan | 26 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 18 | - |
| Luke Meikle | 22 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 15 | - |
| Zach Gordon | 17 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 8 | - |
| Jaylen Shead | 14 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | - |
* = starter