Model Predictions
| Model | Cal Poly Mustangs | UC Irvine Anteaters | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 8.2% | 91.8% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 10.6% | 89.4% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 10.8% | 89.2% | +11.6 | ✓ (8.4 off) |
| Pythagorean | 30.0% | 70.0% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 11.4% | 88.6% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 11.4% | 88.6% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 26.0% | 74.0% | - | ✓ |
Actual: UC Irvine Anteaters +20 (84-64). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Cal Poly Mustangs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Nwaba * | 29 | 3-10 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 4 | - |
| Reese Morgan * | 28 | 2-4 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | - |
| Jaylen Shead * | 26 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 7 | - |
| Brian Bennett * | 25 | 4-13 | 0-0 | 2-8 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 7 | - |
| Josh Martin * | 18 | 3-4 | 3-3 | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 6 | - |
| Ridge Shipley | 23 | 2-7 | 1-6 | 0-1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | - |
| Luke Meikle | 21 | 5-7 | 5-6 | 4-4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 13 | - |
| Joel Awich | 12 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | -4 | - |
| Taylor Sutlive | 12 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | - |
| Zach Gordon | 6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | - |
UC Irvine Anteaters
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Young * | 34 | 4-11 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 10 | - |
| Luke Nelson * | 32 | 11-15 | 6-7 | 8-8 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 36 | 28 | - |
| Mike Best * | 24 | 3-8 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5 | - |
| Mamadou Ndiaye * | 16 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 7 | - |
| Dominique Dunning * | 7 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Aaron Wright | 22 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 6-6 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 12 | - |
| Jaron Martin | 18 | 3-8 | 1-4 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 5 | - |
| Jonathan Galloway | 18 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | - |
| Ioannis Dimakopoulos | 18 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | - |
| Brandon Smith | 8 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | - |
| Shawn Ray | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| Spencer Rivers | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Haroldas Saprykinas | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter