Model Predictions
| Model | Cal Poly Mustangs | UC Davis Aggies | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 34.5% | 65.5% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 45.3% | 54.7% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 47.3% | 52.7% | +0.6 | ✓ (13.4 off) |
| Pythagorean | 48.4% | 51.6% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 59.1% | 40.9% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 59.2% | 40.8% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 48.0% | 52.0% | - | ✓ |
Actual: UC Davis Aggies +14 (66-52). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Cal Poly Mustangs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Nwaba * | 30 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 23 | - |
| Brian Bennett * | 30 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 14 | - |
| Ridge Shipley * | 24 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | - |
| Reese Morgan * | 22 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | - |
| Josh Martin * | 12 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 3 | - |
| Jaylen Shead | 28 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 12 | - |
| Luke Meikle | 27 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 14 | - |
| Taylor Sutlive | 17 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | - |
| Zach Gordon | 10 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - |
UC Davis Aggies
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brynton Lemar * | 36 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 23 | - |
| Siler Schneider * | 36 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 11 | - |
| Neal Monson * | 33 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 24 | - |
| Josh Fox * | 32 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 34 | - |
| Darius Graham * | 32 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 11 | - |
| Garrison Goode | 16 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | - |
| Lawrence White | 15 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | - |
* = starter