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Atlanta Dream

Also known as: Atlanta Dream
Program History

2014 Team Stats (37 games)

80.8
PPG
78.8
Opp
+2.0
Margin
43.5%
FG%
30.6%
3P%
73.9%
FT%
37.5
RPG
19.5
APG
15.4
TO
83.1
Est. poss./game
79.7
Adj PPG
78.6
Adj Opp PPG
#3
Scoring Rank

Model Outputs

2014
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More โ†’ 974 (#5) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More โ†’ 1006 (#3) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +59 elo More โ†’ 967 (#8) HCA +59 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.4 More โ†’ +1.1 (#3) HCA +2.4
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.6 More โ†’ -0.2 (#4) HCA +2.6
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More โ†’ 0.573 (#3) -
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +1.2 More โ†’ 0.535 (#3) AdjNet +1.2
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +1.2 More โ†’ 0.535 (#3) AdjNet +1.2
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 79.7 | AdjD 78.6 More โ†’ 0.525 (#3) AdjO 79.7 | AdjD 78.6
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 78.6 | AdjD 78.8 More โ†’ 0.496 (#4) AdjO 78.6 | AdjD 78.8
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More โ†’ 0.496 (#4) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More โ†’ 0.490 (#4) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 100 | GP 37 More โ†’ 987 (#4) RD 100 | GP 37

2014 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2014-05-16 vs San Antonio Stars W 79 - 75
2014-05-17 @ Indiana Fever W 90 - 88
2014-05-24 @ Chicago Sky L 73 - 87
2014-05-25 vs Indiana Fever L 77 - 82
2014-05-30 vs Seattle Storm W 80 - 69
2014-06-01 @ Connecticut Sun L 76 - 85
2014-06-03 vs Los Angeles Sparks W 93 - 85
2014-06-07 vs Chicago Sky W 97 - 59
2014-06-13 vs Minnesota Lynx W 85 - 82
2014-06-15 @ Washington Mystics W 75 - 67
2014-06-18 vs Washington Mystics W 83 - 73
2014-06-20 vs New York Liberty W 85 - 64
2014-06-22 @ New York Liberty L 78 - 85
2014-06-26 @ San Antonio Stars W 81 - 79
2014-06-29 @ Indiana Fever W 76 - 68
2014-07-01 vs Indiana Fever L 70 - 77
2014-07-05 vs Washington Mystics W 86 - 73
2014-07-08 vs Connecticut Sun W 83 - 71
2014-07-12 @ Indiana Fever W 93 - 74
2014-07-13 vs Chicago Sky W 81 - 79
2014-07-16 @ New York Liberty L 75 - 77
2014-07-22 @ Minnesota Lynx L 108 - 112
2014-07-25 vs Chicago Sky L 75 - 79
2014-07-27 @ Washington Mystics L 67 - 77
2014-07-29 vs Connecticut Sun W 89 - 80
2014-07-31 @ Tulsa Shock W 85 - 75
2014-08-03 vs New York Liberty L 76 - 83
2014-08-05 @ Phoenix Mercury L 67 - 75
2014-08-07 @ Seattle Storm L 68 - 88
2014-08-08 @ Los Angeles Sparks L 77 - 80
2014-08-10 @ Chicago Sky L 69 - 80
2014-08-13 vs Phoenix Mercury W 96 - 82
2014-08-15 vs Tulsa Shock W 92 - 76
2014-08-17 @ Connecticut Sun L 55 - 84
2014-08-22 vs Chicago Sky L 77 - 80
2014-08-24 @ Chicago Sky W 92 - 83
2014-08-26 vs Chicago Sky L 80 - 81

2014 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM GP PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Angel McCoughtry Angel McCoughtry F 34 31.6 19.2 5.3 3.6 2.4 0.4 3.5 16.2 11.2 - - - - 42.1 30.7 82.4 - 51.6 45.3
E. de Souza E. de Souza F 37 29.7 13.6 8.4 1.2 1.1 1.4 1.6 10.8 13.2 - - - - 53.5 0 69.1 - 56.2 53.5
Tiffany Hayes Tiffany Hayes G 38 28.6 12.9 3.0 2.5 0.9 0.3 1.2 9.1 9.3 - - - - 46.1 35.4 77.5 - 58.6 52.6
D. Nowitzki D. Nowitzki - 37 31.7 11.9 9.2 2.5 2.1 0.6 1.5 11.4 13.4 - - - - 45.4 23.1 66.3 - 48.1 45.7
S. Schimmel S. Schimmel G 38 21.3 8.1 2.2 3.8 0.8 0.1 2.4 8.0 4.6 - - - - 37.2 34.5 86.2 - 48.8 46.7
S. Prahalis S. Prahalis G 1 13.0 6.0 3.0 0.0 3.0 0.0 1.0 3.0 8.0 - - - - 66.7 0 100.0 - 77.3 66.7
Jasmine Thomas Jasmine Thomas G 38 18.1 5.0 2.1 1.8 0.5 0.1 1.1 5.7 2.7 - - - - 32.6 26.0 69.2 - 39.7 35.6
A. Henry-Morello A. Henry-Morello F 38 12.9 4.6 3.3 0.3 0.2 0.6 0.9 3.2 4.8 - - - - 59.8 0 68.3 - 62.1 59.8
Billy Collins Billy Collins - 2 11.5 4.5 1.0 0.0 0.5 1.5 1.5 3.5 2.5 - - - - 28.6 50.0 100.0 - 51.4 35.7
C. Dumerc C. Dumerc G 29 19.1 3.4 2.0 4.0 1.1 0.1 2.1 3.4 5.1 - - - - 30.6 24.1 69.4 - 43.0 37.2
N. Colhado N. Colhado C 17 7.7 2.7 1.8 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 2.6 2.1 - - - - 48.9 0 28.6 - 47.8 48.9
M. Ajavon M. Ajavon G 27 8.8 2.1 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.0 0.9 2.2 0.9 - - - - 28.3 10.0 72.4 - 38.5 29.2
J. Player J. Player G 1 8.0 2.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 1.0 - - - - 50.0 0.0 0 - 50.0 50.0
S. Cash S. Cash F 18 9.4 1.8 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.9 2.7 0.6 - - - - 24.5 0.0 47.4 - 28.8 24.5
A. Thompson A. Thompson F 22 8.3 1.7 2.1 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.6 1.8 2.8 - - - - 35.9 0 83.3 - 42.9 35.9
I. Orekhova I. Orekhova G 3 8.7 1.0 1.3 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 3.0 0.3 - - - - 11.1 16.7 0.0 - 15.9 16.7
C. Harberts C. Harberts F 1 9.0 0.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 1.0 - - - - 0.0 0 0 - 0.0 0.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

Not enough players with both Numbers/Game and RAPM to plot.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG

2014 Shot Zones

2673 located field-goal attempts in 38 games (ESPN). Each zone is coloured by the player with the largest share of the team's made-shot points there (left) and of its misses there (right).

Souza27% Souza23% Nowitzki33% Nowitzki54% Nowitzki26% Schimmel33% Hayes60% Schimmel36% Schimmel43% Schimmel30%
Points: who the team's points here most likely come from
Souza21% Souza24% McCoughtry24% Nowitzki41% McCoughtry28% Thomas27% Thomas62% Schimmel30% McCoughtry36% Schimmel34%
Misses: who misses most here

Angel McCoughtryE. de SouzaD. NowitzkiTiffany HayesS. SchimmelJasmine Thomas

Zone FGM-FGA FG% Pts Top scorer Runner-up Most misses Runner-up
Restricted area 603-989 61.0 1206 E. de Souza 27% (324 pts) Angel McCoughtry 20% (246 pts) E. de Souza 21% (82 misses) Angel McCoughtry 20% (78 misses)
Paint (non-RA) 139-397 35.0 278 E. de Souza 23% (64 pts) D. Nowitzki 19% (54 pts) E. de Souza 24% (61 misses) Angel McCoughtry 17% (45 misses)
Mid-range left 92-275 33.5 184 D. Nowitzki 33% (60 pts) Angel McCoughtry 21% (38 pts) Angel McCoughtry 24% (44 misses) D. Nowitzki 24% (44 misses)
Mid-range center 59-169 34.9 118 D. Nowitzki 54% (64 pts) Angel McCoughtry 15% (18 pts) D. Nowitzki 41% (45 misses) Angel McCoughtry 16% (18 misses)
Mid-range right 96-301 31.9 192 D. Nowitzki 26% (50 pts) Angel McCoughtry 23% (44 pts) Angel McCoughtry 28% (57 misses) D. Nowitzki 21% (43 misses)
Left corner 3 6-17 35.3 18 S. Schimmel 33% (6 pts) Angel McCoughtry 17% (3 pts) Jasmine Thomas 27% (3 misses) Tiffany Hayes 27% (3 misses)
Right corner 3 5-13 38.5 15 Tiffany Hayes 60% (9 pts) Angel McCoughtry 20% (3 pts) Jasmine Thomas 62% (5 misses) Tiffany Hayes 25% (2 misses)
Above-break 3 left 58-199 29.1 174 S. Schimmel 36% (63 pts) Tiffany Hayes 28% (48 pts) S. Schimmel 30% (43 misses) Tiffany Hayes 21% (30 misses)
Above-break 3 center 37-98 37.8 111 S. Schimmel 43% (48 pts) Angel McCoughtry 22% (24 pts) Angel McCoughtry 36% (22 misses) S. Schimmel 20% (12 misses)
Above-break 3 right 63-215 29.3 189 S. Schimmel 30% (57 pts) Tiffany Hayes 30% (57 pts) S. Schimmel 34% (52 misses) Tiffany Hayes 22% (34 misses)