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San Diego State Aztecs

Season: 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017
Also known as: San Diego State Aztecs
Program History
Coach: Brian Dutcher

2026 Team Stats (31 games)

77.7
PPG
70.7
Opp
+7.0
Margin
47.3%
FG%
34.2%
3P%
73.0%
FT%
35.3
RPG
15.1
APG
11.9
TO
79.8
Pace
80.4
AdjO
67.5
AdjD
#51
Rank

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 1158 (#65) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1241 (#35) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +109 elo More → 1045 (#113) HCA +109 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.2 More → +12.9 (#51) HCA +2.2
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.5 More → +26.4 (#40) HCA +2.5
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.701 (#67) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff -1.4 More → 0.459 (#183) NetEff -1.4
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +17.7 More → 0.884 (#49) AdjNet +17.7
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +17.7 More → 0.886 (#49) AdjNet +17.7
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 80.4 | AdjD 67.5 More → 0.764 (#51) AdjO 80.4 | AdjD 67.5
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 75.9 | AdjD 66.6 More → 0.699 (#42) AdjO 75.9 | AdjD 66.6
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.901 (#52) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.876 (#52) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 125 | GP 31 More → 1207 (#60) RD 125 | GP 31

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-04 vs Long Beach State Beach W 77 - 45
2025-11-09 vs Idaho State Bengals W 73 - 57
2025-11-18 vs Troy Trojans L 107 - 108
2025-11-24 @ Michigan Wolverines L 54 - 94
2025-11-25 @ Oregon Ducks W 97 - 80
2025-11-26 vs Baylor Bears L 81 - 91
2025-12-03 vs Utah Valley Wolverines W 77 - 66
2025-12-17 vs Air Force Falcons W 81 - 58
2025-12-20 @ Arizona Wildcats L 45 - 68
2025-12-22 vs Whittier Poets W 121 - 59
2025-12-30 @ San José State Spartans W 81 - 68
2026-01-03 vs Boise State Broncos W 110 - 107
2026-01-06 @ Nevada Wolf Pack W 73 - 68
2026-01-10 vs Fresno State Bulldogs W 71 - 52
2026-01-14 @ Wyoming Cowboys W 74 - 57
2026-01-21 @ Grand Canyon Lopes L 69 - 70
2026-01-24 @ UNLV Rebels W 82 - 71
2026-01-28 vs Colorado State Rams W 73 - 50
2026-01-31 @ Utah State Aggies L 66 - 71
2026-02-03 vs Wyoming Cowboys W 72 - 63
2026-02-07 @ Air Force Falcons W 88 - 54
2026-02-14 vs Nevada Wolf Pack W 71 - 57
2026-02-17 vs Grand Canyon Lopes L 63 - 73
2026-02-21 @ Colorado State Rams L 74 - 83
2026-02-25 vs Utah State Aggies W 89 - 72
2026-02-28 @ New Mexico Lobos L 76 - 81
2026-03-03 @ Boise State Broncos L 77 - 86
2026-03-06 vs UNLV Rebels W 89 - 86
2026-03-12 vs Colorado State Rams W 71 - 62
2026-03-13 vs New Mexico Lobos W 64 - 62
2026-03-14 @ Utah State Aggies L 62 - 73

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Reese Dixon-Waters Reese Dixon-Waters - 30 30.3 13.3 3.4 1.3 0.7 0.1 1.4 10.3 7.1 49 2.6 3.9 43.2 35.5 88.0 0.68 56.9 51.3
BJ Davis BJ Davis - 31 22.4 10.7 3.2 2.2 1.1 0.1 0.9 7.8 8.5 33 2.5 62.0 42.1 37.1 84.5 0.17 57.3 49.6
M. Byrd M. Byrd - 31 27.9 9.8 4.6 2.5 1.9 1.1 1.8 8.5 9.5 69 3.3 7.0 39.2 28.8 77.3 0.88 51.0 46.4
M. Gwath M. Gwath - 23 19.4 9.1 4.3 0.3 0.4 1.5 1.5 6.3 8.0 4 0.3 0.7 52.8 45.5 59.4 0.1 61.0 59.7
Elzie Harrington Elzie Harrington - 22 20.5 7.8 1.6 2.3 0.7 0.1 1.5 5.9 5.0 21 1.9 72.3 50.0 44.1 81.2 0.07 59.3 55.8
P. Compton P. Compton - 31 13.9 7.3 2.7 0.3 0.4 1.0 0.8 4.3 6.6 83 4.0 12.6 72.0 0.0 64.9 0.95 72.3 72.0
Tae Simmons Tae Simmons - 30 14.6 6.0 3.5 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.5 3.3 6.6 23 2.1 82.6 65.3 25.0 62.8 -0.02 67.6 66.3
M. Heide M. Heide - 30 19.0 5.7 4.5 0.8 0.5 0.6 1.0 3.9 7.3 30 1.5 4.4 61.5 33.3 50.0 0.58 61.5 62.4
T. DeGourville T. DeGourville - 31 19.4 5.4 2.8 3.2 0.9 0.1 1.5 5.1 5.7 50 2.5 5.9 35.8 32.7 66.7 0.82 45.7 41.2
J. Oden J. Oden - 28 14.1 4.7 2.3 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.5 3.8 3.5 14 0.7 2.1 43.9 29.4 73.3 0.17 54.5 50.9
S. Newman Jr. S. Newman Jr. G 31 15.3 3.2 1.2 2.4 0.5 0.0 0.9 2.8 3.7 50 2.3 7.9 37.2 28.6 84.8 0.13 49.7 41.9
C. Lawin C. Lawin - 7 1.9 1.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.1 0.6 -11 -2.2 -220.0 62.5 50.0 0 -0.02 81.2 81.2
Raymar Gonzales Raymar Gonzales G 4 2.8 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.0 0 0.0 0.0 50.0 0.0 0 -0.03 50.0 50.0
T. Majak T. Majak - 8 3.8 0.2 1.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.0 -5 -0.7 -16.3 16.7 0 0.0 -0.18 15.5 16.7
L. Davis L. Davis G 0 - 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - - - 47 2.1 4.1 - - - 0.38 - -

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG