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2026-01-03

Model Predictions

Model Boise State Broncos San Diego State Aztecs Spread Result
Elo 45.1% 54.9% -
Bradley-Terry 31.9% 68.1% -
Margin 33.1% 66.9% +3.9 (0.9 off)
Pythagorean 45.3% 54.7% -
Efficiency 95.0% 5.0% -
Adjusted Efficiency 38.1% 61.9% -
Log Adjusted 38.3% 61.7% -
Points Off/Def 39.8% 60.2% -

Actual: San Diego State Aztecs +3 (110-107). Predictions use season-end ratings.

Boise State Broncos

Player MIN FG 3PT FT REB AST STL BLK TO PTS Numbers RAPM GS
A. Meadow 51 9-19 2-7 5-6 3 1 3 0 0 25 13 -2.0
D. Andrews 47 3-17 2-11 8-8 6 6 0 0 3 16 8 +2.9
J. Buchanan 42 10-13 4-6 5-6 5 6 0 0 3 29 24 +10.0
D. Fielder 38 6-12 3-7 1-2 9 1 0 0 4 16 10 -6.1
A. Neto 32 3-6 3-5 4-4 2 2 0 0 2 13 9 +17.6
D. Parolin 22 1-1 0-0 2-3 8 0 1 1 0 4 13 +9.6
RJ Keene 15 0-1 0-1 2-2 2 1 2 0 1 2 5 -13.3
P. Carmichael 14 1-7 0-3 0-0 5 0 0 0 3 2 -3 -20.8
S. Ahrens 12 0-3 0-2 0-0 1 0 0 0 0 0 -2 -11.8
B. Buom 2 0-0 0-0 0-0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 +1.0

San Diego State Aztecs

Player MIN FG 3PT FT REB AST STL BLK TO PTS Numbers RAPM GS
R. Dixon-Waters 45 5-12 3-5 3-4 5 6 0 0 3 16 12 +0.1
BJ Davis 41 6-15 3-6 7-9 11 6 4 0 2 22 26 +5.5
M. Byrd 39 4-11 1-4 4-6 5 2 3 2 2 13 12 +4.5
M. Heide 32 4-6 0-0 0-3 6 1 2 0 1 8 10 +1.5
E. Harrington 31 7-11 1-3 5-6 3 1 1 0 0 20 14 -0.8
J. Oden 29 3-6 1-4 0-0 3 1 0 1 1 7 5 +2.6
P. Compton 23 5-6 0-0 1-2 1 0 0 1 2 11 5 +0.6
M. Gwath 15 3-3 2-2 1-2 0 0 0 0 2 9 4 +4.8
T. DeGourville 14 2-3 0-0 0-0 1 1 0 0 0 4 3 -1.1
S. Newman Jr. 6 0-0 0-0 0-0 0 3 0 0 1 0 2 -0.9

* = starter