Model Predictions
| Model | Boise State Broncos | San Diego State Aztecs | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 45.1% | 54.9% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 31.9% | 68.1% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 33.1% | 66.9% | +3.9 | ✓ (0.9 off) |
| Pythagorean | 45.3% | 54.7% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 95.0% | 5.0% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 38.1% | 61.9% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 38.3% | 61.7% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 39.8% | 60.2% | - | ✓ |
Actual: San Diego State Aztecs +3 (110-107). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Boise State Broncos
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Meadow | 51 | 9-19 | 2-7 | 5-6 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 25 | 13 | -2.0 |
| D. Andrews | 47 | 3-17 | 2-11 | 8-8 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 8 | +2.9 |
| J. Buchanan | 42 | 10-13 | 4-6 | 5-6 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 29 | 24 | +10.0 |
| D. Fielder | 38 | 6-12 | 3-7 | 1-2 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 10 | -6.1 |
| A. Neto | 32 | 3-6 | 3-5 | 4-4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 9 | +17.6 |
| D. Parolin | 22 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 13 | +9.6 |
| RJ Keene | 15 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -13.3 |
| P. Carmichael | 14 | 1-7 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -3 | -20.8 |
| S. Ahrens | 12 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | -11.8 |
| B. Buom | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1.0 |
San Diego State Aztecs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Dixon-Waters | 45 | 5-12 | 3-5 | 3-4 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 12 | +0.1 |
| BJ Davis | 41 | 6-15 | 3-6 | 7-9 | 11 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 22 | 26 | +5.5 |
| M. Byrd | 39 | 4-11 | 1-4 | 4-6 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 12 | +4.5 |
| M. Heide | 32 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 0-3 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 10 | +1.5 |
| E. Harrington | 31 | 7-11 | 1-3 | 5-6 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 14 | -0.8 |
| J. Oden | 29 | 3-6 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 5 | +2.6 |
| P. Compton | 23 | 5-6 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 5 | +0.6 |
| M. Gwath | 15 | 3-3 | 2-2 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 4 | +4.8 |
| T. DeGourville | 14 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | -1.1 |
| S. Newman Jr. | 6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -0.9 |
* = starter