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2026-03-03

Model Predictions

Model San Diego State Aztecs Boise State Broncos Spread Result
Elo 37.9% 62.1% -
Bradley-Terry 54.5% 45.5% -
Margin 47.2% 52.8% +0.6 (8.4 off)
Pythagorean 48.7% 51.3% -
Efficiency 1.0% 99.0% -
Adjusted Efficiency 55.9% 44.1% -
Log Adjusted 55.7% 44.3% -
Points Off/Def 46.8% 53.2% -

Actual: Boise State Broncos +9 (86-77). Predictions use season-end ratings.

San Diego State Aztecs

Player MIN FG 3PT FT REB AST STL BLK TO PTS Numbers RAPM GS
R. Dixon-Waters 30 8-14 4-8 3-3 2 0 0 0 1 23 10 -
E. Harrington 24 4-7 1-4 0-0 3 3 1 0 2 9 7 -
M. Byrd 23 2-5 1-2 2-2 2 4 1 0 0 7 9 -
T. Simmons 22 3-5 0-0 6-7 3 0 0 0 0 12 10 -
M. Heide 20 3-4 0-0 2-3 1 0 0 0 1 8 4 -
T. DeGourville 19 1-5 0-1 2-3 0 1 1 0 1 4 0 -
BJ Davis 18 2-5 0-0 2-2 1 1 0 0 1 6 2 -
S. Newman Jr. 16 1-3 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 2 -1 -
M. Gwath 15 2-4 0-0 0-0 1 0 0 0 0 4 1 -
J. Oden 7 0-1 0-0 0-0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 -
P. Compton 6 1-2 0-1 0-0 1 0 0 0 1 2 0 -

Boise State Broncos

Player MIN FG 3PT FT REB AST STL BLK TO PTS Numbers RAPM GS
D. Andrews 34 3-5 1-3 6-9 1 1 0 0 5 13 5 -
J. Buchanan 32 6-11 2-5 3-4 4 0 0 0 1 17 9 -
A. Meadow 30 4-9 3-5 1-2 5 1 0 0 2 12 7 -
RJ Keene 30 2-3 1-2 0-0 8 5 0 1 1 5 15 -
D. Fielder 26 7-10 3-4 16-18 9 0 0 0 1 33 31 -
A. Neto 18 1-2 1-1 0-0 1 0 0 0 2 3 0 -
D. Parolin 14 0-1 0-0 0-0 5 2 1 0 1 0 6 -
S. Ahrens 8 0-2 0-2 0-0 0 0 0 0 1 0 -3 -
P. Carmichael 7 1-3 1-3 0-0 2 0 0 0 0 3 2 -
B. Buom 1 0-0 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 0 1 0 -1 -

* = starter