Model Predictions
| Model | San Diego State Aztecs | Nevada Wolf Pack | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 40.5% | 59.5% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 54.2% | 45.8% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 53.8% | 46.2% | -0.8 | ✓ (4.2 off) |
| Pythagorean | 48.2% | 51.8% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 1.0% | 99.0% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 60.9% | 39.1% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 60.8% | 39.2% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 49.9% | 50.1% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Nevada Wolf Pack -5 (68-73). Predictions use season-end ratings.
San Diego State Aztecs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Byrd | 32 | 6-13 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 12 | -0.2 |
| R. Dixon-Waters | 28 | 5-9 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 4 | +0.9 |
| BJ Davis | 27 | 2-8 | 0-4 | 6-7 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 15 | +10.4 |
| M. Heide | 23 | 5-5 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 13 | +9.1 |
| T. DeGourville | 20 | 3-9 | 0-2 | 4-5 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 7 | +11.0 |
| M. Gwath | 19 | 3-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 9 | +0.8 |
| S. Newman Jr. | 15 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 | +0.7 |
| J. Oden | 11 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -0.5 |
| E. Harrington | 10 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -0.4 |
| P. Compton | 8 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -3.4 |
| T. Simmons | 7 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1.9 |
Nevada Wolf Pack
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Price | 31 | 3-7 | 0-1 | 11-12 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 25 | -3.4 |
| C. Bailey III | 31 | 5-13 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 6 | +3.3 |
| T. Comer | 28 | 5-15 | 2-9 | 4-4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 1 | +2.3 |
| C. Camper Jr. | 28 | 4-11 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 2 | -3.7 |
| K. Lowery | 24 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 13 | -3.9 |
| T. Rolison | 14 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -3 | +0.8 |
| A. Robinson | 13 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | +5.6 |
| P. White | 12 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -6.2 |
| M. Walker | 10 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | -11.1 |
| E. Croley | 6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -4.9 |
| J. Coleman | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -4.1 |
* = starter