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2026-01-06

Model Predictions

Model San Diego State Aztecs Nevada Wolf Pack Spread Result
Elo 40.5% 59.5% -
Bradley-Terry 54.2% 45.8% -
Margin 53.8% 46.2% -0.8 (4.2 off)
Pythagorean 48.2% 51.8% -
Efficiency 1.0% 99.0% -
Adjusted Efficiency 60.9% 39.1% -
Log Adjusted 60.8% 39.2% -
Points Off/Def 49.9% 50.1% -

Actual: Nevada Wolf Pack -5 (68-73). Predictions use season-end ratings.

San Diego State Aztecs

Player MIN FG 3PT FT REB AST STL BLK TO PTS Numbers RAPM GS
M. Byrd 32 6-13 2-6 0-0 4 5 2 1 1 14 12 -0.2
R. Dixon-Waters 28 5-9 0-2 0-0 4 0 0 1 2 10 4 +0.9
BJ Davis 27 2-8 0-4 6-7 7 4 3 0 1 10 15 +10.4
M. Heide 23 5-5 0-0 0-1 7 0 0 2 1 10 13 +9.1
T. DeGourville 20 3-9 0-2 4-5 6 2 0 0 2 10 7 +11.0
M. Gwath 19 3-3 1-1 0-0 5 0 0 1 1 7 9 +0.8
S. Newman Jr. 15 2-2 1-1 0-0 1 3 0 0 1 5 6 +0.7
J. Oden 11 0-1 0-1 0-0 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 -0.5
E. Harrington 10 0-0 0-0 2-2 0 2 1 0 2 2 3 -0.4
P. Compton 8 1-1 0-0 1-2 1 0 0 0 0 3 3 -3.4
T. Simmons 7 1-3 0-0 0-2 0 1 1 0 0 2 1 +1.9

Nevada Wolf Pack

Player MIN FG 3PT FT REB AST STL BLK TO PTS Numbers RAPM GS
E. Price 31 3-7 0-1 11-12 10 3 4 0 2 17 25 -3.4
C. Bailey III 31 5-13 3-6 0-0 2 3 1 0 0 13 6 +3.3
T. Comer 28 5-15 2-9 4-4 2 2 0 0 4 16 1 +2.3
C. Camper Jr. 28 4-11 0-3 0-0 2 3 1 0 1 8 2 -3.7
K. Lowery 24 1-2 1-2 2-2 7 1 1 1 0 5 13 -3.9
T. Rolison 14 0-2 0-1 0-0 0 1 0 0 2 0 -3 +0.8
A. Robinson 13 1-3 1-3 0-0 1 3 0 0 0 3 4 +5.6
P. White 12 1-2 0-1 0-0 1 0 1 0 0 2 2 -6.2
M. Walker 10 1-3 1-2 0-0 3 1 0 0 0 3 4 -11.1
E. Croley 6 0-1 0-0 1-2 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 -4.9
J. Coleman 3 0-0 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -4.1

* = starter